Venezuela leader end of 2026?

根據「Venezuela leader end of 2026?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Nicolás Maduro 以壓倒性的 79.4% 獲勝機率主導市場；Delcy Rodríguez 以 15.5% 位居第二，María Corina Machado 以 5.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $91.2M，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Nicolás Maduro (79.4%)：Nicolás Maduro 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 79¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $1.9M 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Delcy Rodríguez (15.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Delcy Rodríguez 保持著 15.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 16¢。
• María Corina Machado (5.5%)：以 5.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 María Corina Machado 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Edmundo González (0.7%)、Jorge Rodríguez (0.5%)，以及 No Head of State (0.5%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Diosdado Cabello Rondón 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：Nicolás Maduro 當前交易價為 79.4%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 36.4%，形成 -43% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Evan Pettus 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 0.2% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 38.4%——形成可觀的 +38.2% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Dan Caine（EV 差：+33.2%）以及 Pete Hegseth（EV 差：+28.4%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。