US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

根據「US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 80.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；November 30 以 56.5% 位居第二，November 22 以 47.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $454K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (80.5%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 81¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $63.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• November 30 (56.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，November 30 保持著 56.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 56¢。
• November 22 (47.5%)：以 47.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 November 22 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 November 15 (41.5%)，以及 November 8 (17%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 November 15 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (Iran Standard Time) after the most recent qualifying military action. Military actions occurring before market creation are not qualifying military actions. Where no qualifying military action has occurred after market creation, the first day of the 14-day period will be the date of market creation (Iran Standard Time). The period runs through 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the 14th calendar day.

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. To allow for the reporting of any qualifying military action occurring within a 14-day period, that period will not be considered completed until 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following its 14th day; only qualifying military actions occurring within the 14-day period will be considered for that period. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a potentially-qualifying incident at that time, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：November 8 當前交易價為 17%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 14.2%，形成 -2.8% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 November 22 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 47.5% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 56.4%——形成可觀的 +8.9% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 November 30（EV 差：+6.9%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。