US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

根據「US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 6,050% 獲勝機率主導市場；October 31 以 3,350% 位居第二，September 30 以 1,350% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $120.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (6,050%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 6,050¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $24.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• October 31 (3,350%)：作為最可行的替代選項，October 31 保持著 3,350% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,350¢。
• September 30 (1,350%)：以 1,350% 的機率位列第三，市場對 September 30 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Canada to lower US tariffs on Canada is announced by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic agreement to lower US tariffs on Canada refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that commits or obligates the United States to lower any tariffs on Canada, or includes the lowering of US tariffs on Canada as part of its stated terms.

Any reduction, revocation, or suspension of US tariffs on Canada, or the cancelled or suspended implementation of previously announced tariffs not yet effective, mutually announced as part of a diplomatic agreement, will qualify as lowering tariffs.

All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.

Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.

Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries or whether the agreement qualifies, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 14 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, the announcements will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Canada and a consensus of credible reporting.