US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

根據「US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，March 31 以壓倒性的 56.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；December 31 以 35.9% 位居第二，November 30 以 23.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $42.7M，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• March 31 (56.5%)：March 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 56¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $165.0K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• December 31 (35.9%)：作為最可行的替代選項，December 31 保持著 35.9% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 36¢。
• November 30 (23.5%)：以 23.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 November 30 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 October 31 (6.5%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 October 31 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.

A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.

A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.

The following do not qualify:

Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;

Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;

Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;

Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and

Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.

Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.

Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：November 30 當前交易價為 23.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 21.2%，形成 -2.3% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 December 31 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 35.9% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 48.5%——形成可觀的 +12.7% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 October 31（EV 差：+5.6%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。