UEFA Champions League: Top Scorer 2026-27

$87.3K Vol
2027年6月20日
Active
機率趨勢
Kylian Mbappé 22.5%
Raphinha 15.0%
Erling Haaland 14.5%
Harry Kane 13.5%
Matheus Cunha 13.5%

核心摘要

根據「UEFA Champions League: Top Scorer 2026-27」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Kylian Mbappé 以壓倒性的 21.5% 獲勝機率主導市場；Raphinha 以 15% 位居第二，Erling Haaland 以 14.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $87.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Kylian Mbappé (21.5%)：Kylian Mbappé 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 22¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $12.1K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Raphinha (15%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Raphinha 保持著 15% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 15¢。
  • Erling Haaland (14.5%)：以 14.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Erling Haaland 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 49%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

  • 替代選項：包括 Odsonne Édouard (14.3%)、Serhou Guirassy (13.9%)，以及 Harry Kane (13.5%)。
  • 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Ricardo Pepi 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Kylian Mbappé21.5%$12.1K22¢79¢
2Raphinha15.0%$21.7K15¢85¢
3Erling Haaland14.5%$7.1K14¢86¢
4Odsonne Édouard14.3%$44614¢86¢
5Serhou Guirassy13.9%$99514¢86¢
6Harry Kane13.5%$5.8K14¢87¢
7Ricardo Pepi11.8%$43312¢88¢
8Matheus Cunha10.8%$39611¢89¢
9Ousmane Dembélé6.8%$3.5K7¢93¢
10Antoine Semenyo5.8%$5206¢94¢
11Lamine Yamal5.1%$1.6K5¢95¢
12Julián Álvarez4.9%$5215¢95¢
13Victor Osimhen3.6%$6214¢96¢
14Alexander Isak3.3%$6703¢97¢
15Bukayo Saka3.1%$4003¢97¢
16Veljko Simic3.1%$4453¢97¢
17Luis Javier Suárez2.8%$8643¢97¢
18Michael Olise2.7%$2.0K3¢97¢
19Anastasios Douvikas2.5%$3293¢98¢
20Santiago Castro2.4%$3182¢98¢
21Luka Jovic2.4%$2752¢98¢
22Ferran Torres2.4%$1.9K2¢98¢
23Ermedin Demirovic2.3%$1.5K2¢98¢
24Veton Berisha2.1%$3832¢98¢
25Yan Diomande2.0%$6582¢98¢
26Cody Gakpo1.8%$6602¢98¢
27Benjamin Šeško1.4%$5201¢99¢
28Deniz Undav1.3%$5621¢99¢
29Khvicha Kvaratskhelia1.1%$1.4K1¢99¢
30Alexander Sørloth1.0%$7211¢99¢
31Bradley Barcola0.9%$1.3K1¢99¢
32Vinícius Júnior0.6%$1.0K1¢99¢
33Kai Havertz0.5%$4491¢99¢
34Mason Greenwood0.4%$6520¢100¢
35Karim Adeyemi0.4%$4380¢100¢
36Viktor Gyökeres0.3%$3560¢100¢
37Ismael Saibari0.3%$6050¢100¢
38Lautaro Martínez0.2%$5670¢100¢
39Ola Brynhildsen0.1%$2970¢100¢
40Nicolas Jackson0.1%$2880¢100¢
41Alejandro Garnacho0.1%$2710¢100¢
42Hugo Ekitike0.1%$2820¢100¢
43Marcus Thuram0.1%$3960¢100¢
44Rasmus Højlund0.1%$2390¢100¢
45Lorenzo Lucca0.1%$2380¢100¢
46Paulo Dybala0.1%$4360¢100¢
47Moise Kean0.1%$2270¢100¢
48Georges Mikautadze0.1%$2560¢100¢
49Gerard Moreno0.1%$2760¢100¢
50Cucho Hernández0.1%$2350¢100¢
51Antony0.1%$3840¢100¢
52Luis Díaz0.1%$3700¢100¢
53Maximilian Beier0.1%$2710¢100¢
54Christopher Nkunku0.1%$2070¢100¢
55Johan Bakayoko0.1%$2710¢100¢
56Florian Thauvin0.1%$2970¢100¢
57Olivier Giroud0.1%$2500¢100¢
58Ayase Ueda0.1%$2900¢100¢
59Alassane Pléa0.1%$2700¢100¢
60Anis Hadj Moussa0.1%$4230¢100¢
61Reiss Nelson0.1%$2700¢100¢
62Samu Aghehowa0.1%$2570¢100¢
63André Silva0.1%$2620¢100¢
64Fotis Ioannidis0.1%$4000¢100¢
65Nicolo Tresoldi0.1%$8620¢100¢
66Carlos Forbs0.1%$2700¢100¢
67Tomás Chorý0.1%$2760¢100¢
68Mojmír Chytil0.1%$2300¢100¢
69Rafael Leão0.1%$2590¢100¢
70Lassina Traoré0.1%$2690¢100¢
71Kauã Elias0.1%$2720¢100¢
72Romelu Lukaku0.1%$5880¢100¢
73Andreas Helmersen0.1%$2420¢100¢
74Andraz Sporar0.1%$3040¢100¢
75Mykola Kukharevych0.1%$1940¢100¢
76Barnabás Varga0.1%$2740¢100¢
77Sasa Kalajdzic0.1%$1930¢100¢
78Samuel Adeniran0.1%$2240¢100¢
79Erik Botheim0.1%$1930¢100¢
80Christian Nwachukwu0.1%$2110¢100¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League competition.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA. If multiple leaders are announced, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026-27 Champions League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/statistics/players/goals/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：Odsonne Édouard 當前交易價為 14.3%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 0.1%，形成 -14.2% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
  • 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Lamine Yamal 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 5.1% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 67.4%——形成可觀的 +62.3% EV 差。
  • 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Ousmane Dembélé（EV 差：+48.7%）以及 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia（EV 差：+43.9%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Kylian Mbappé21.5%18.4%-3.1%
Raphinha15.0%9.6%-5.4%
Erling Haaland14.5%16.0%+1.5%
Odsonne Édouard14.3%0.1%-14.2%
Serhou Guirassy13.9%17.3%+3.5%
Harry Kane13.5%23.1%+9.6%
Ricardo Pepi11.8%0.1%-11.6%
Matheus Cunha10.8%0.1%-10.7%
Ousmane Dembélé6.8%55.4%+48.7%
Antoine Semenyo5.8%19.9%+14.2%
Lamine YamalBest EV5.1%67.4%+62.3%
Julián Álvarez4.9%16.7%+11.8%
Victor Osimhen3.6%24.3%+20.7%
Alexander Isak3.3%43.0%+39.7%
Bukayo Saka3.1%10.2%+7.0%
Veljko Simic3.1%12.8%+9.7%
Luis Javier Suárez2.8%26.5%+23.7%
Michael Olise2.7%2.3%-0.4%
Anastasios Douvikas2.5%16.0%+13.5%
Santiago Castro2.4%15.3%+12.9%
Luka Jovic2.4%16.8%+14.5%
Ferran Torres2.4%2.2%-0.2%
Ermedin Demirovic2.3%24.7%+22.5%
Veton Berisha2.1%11.5%+9.4%
Yan Diomande2.0%0.4%-1.6%
Cody Gakpo1.8%0.3%-1.5%
Benjamin Šeško1.4%22.6%+21.2%
Deniz Undav1.3%13.9%+12.6%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia1.1%44.9%+43.9%
Alexander Sørloth1.0%16.7%+15.7%
Bradley Barcola0.9%4.9%+4.1%
Vinícius Júnior0.6%26.1%+25.5%
Kai Havertz0.5%0.5%-0.0%
Mason Greenwood0.4%0.4%-0.0%
Karim Adeyemi0.4%0.4%+0.0%
Viktor Gyökeres0.3%0.1%-0.2%
Ismael Saibari0.3%0.2%-0.0%
Lautaro Martínez0.2%0.2%+0.0%
Ola Brynhildsen0.1%0.1%0.0%
Nicolas Jackson0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Alejandro Garnacho0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Hugo Ekitike0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Marcus Thuram0.1%0.2%+0.2%
Rasmus Højlund0.1%0.2%+0.1%
Lorenzo Lucca0.1%0.2%+0.1%
Paulo Dybala0.1%12.1%+12.0%
Moise Kean0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Georges Mikautadze0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Gerard Moreno0.1%8.6%+8.6%
Cucho Hernández0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Antony0.1%9.2%+9.1%
Luis Díaz0.1%0.3%+0.3%
Maximilian Beier0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Christopher Nkunku0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Johan Bakayoko0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Florian Thauvin0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Olivier Giroud0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Ayase Ueda0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Alassane Pléa0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Anis Hadj Moussa0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Reiss Nelson0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Samu Aghehowa0.1%0.1%+0.1%
André Silva0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Fotis Ioannidis0.1%10.6%+10.5%
Nicolo Tresoldi0.1%16.1%+16.1%
Carlos Forbs0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Tomás Chorý0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Mojmír Chytil0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Rafael Leão0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Lassina Traoré0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Kauã Elias0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Romelu Lukaku0.1%11.4%+11.3%
Andreas Helmersen0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Andraz Sporar0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Mykola Kukharevych0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Barnabás Varga0.1%11.3%+11.3%
Sasa Kalajdzic0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Samuel Adeniran0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Erik Botheim0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Christian Nwachukwu0.1%5.8%+5.8%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Nov 4, 2026

  • 08:16 AM
    STstuv
    $0.15

    Sold 0.74 Yes for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.2

  • 08:11 AM
    MAmaomao228
    $16.39

    Bought 20.746833 No for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.79

  • 08:11 AM
    0X0x73f426b0CE8d83f5A68f4237212E76FA4f41a24b-1783543323805
    $19.85

    Bought 25.45 No for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.78

  • 04:59 AM
    LEleegunner
    $18.06

    Sold 21 No for Will Raphinha score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.86

  • 03:44 AM
    ABABC12345654321
    $1.65

    Bought 7.173914 Yes for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.23

  • 03:42 AM
    ABABC12345654321
    $1.79

    Bought 7.782609 Yes for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.23

  • 02:20 AM
    0X0x2F5057A272D5D2DAeCc622055037c21879d163a7-1784668294400
    $8.33

    Sold 41.66 Yes for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.2

  • 02:04 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 86.02 Yes for Will Lautaro Martínez score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

  • 02:04 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 7.59 Yes for Will Ola Brynhildsen score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

  • 01:55 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 86.02 Yes for Will Ismael Saibari score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

  • 01:55 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 85.62 Yes for Will Kai Havertz score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

  • 01:55 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 86.02 Yes for Will Viktor Gyökeres score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
事件損益
+$116,960.36
成交量
$111,309.86
持倉數
NoNoNo+77
HJ2
Hjklm
事件損益
+$412.76
成交量
$38,249.62
持倉數
NoYesYes+76
NO3
northstock
事件損益
+$111.41
成交量
$14,739.84
持倉數
NoNoYes+73
844
843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.
事件損益
+$82.61
成交量
$7,748.14
持倉數
YesYesYes+50
LE5
leegunner
事件損益
+$141.38
成交量
$5,665.82
持倉數
NoNoYes+13
GI6
GingerMcKenna
事件損益
+$67.85
成交量
$5,639.76
持倉數
YesYesYes+53
CY7
Cyberflems
事件損益
-$36.46
成交量
$5,581.89
持倉數
YesYesYes+3
BA8
balthazar
事件損益
+$16.39
成交量
$5,280.48
持倉數
YesYesYes+65

常見問題

目前市場對「UEFA Champions League: Top Scorer 2026-27」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Kylian Mbappé 以 21.5% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Raphinha（15%），以及 Erling Haaland（14.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $87.3K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一輪測算顯示，Lamine Yamal 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 5.1%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 67.4%——形成 +62.3% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 Odsonne Édouard 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 14.3%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 0.1%，形成 -14.2% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

長尾資料中是否藏有高價值的黑馬選項？

當然有。除了頭部結果之外，我們的模型在排名靠後的選項中發現了被低估的潛力。Ousmane Dembélé 擁有 +48.7% 的正 EV 差，Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 則為 +43.9%。儘管量化層面更有支撐，這些合約仍被即時訂單簿低估。

開始交易