
Top Spotify Song 2026
核心摘要
根據「Top Spotify Song 2026」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,End of Beginning – Djo 以壓倒性的 6,210% 獲勝機率主導市場;Babydoll – Dominic Fike 以 3,335% 位居第二,Swim – BTS 以 230% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $124.7K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- End of Beginning – Djo (6,210%):End of Beginning – Djo 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 6,210¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $26.3K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Babydoll – Dominic Fike (3,335%):作為最可行的替代選項,Babydoll – Dominic Fike 保持著 3,335% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,335¢。
- Swim – BTS (230%):以 230% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Swim – BTS 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj (155%)、Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy (70%),以及 hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande (55%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | End of Beginning – Djo | 6210.0% | $26.3K | 6210¢ | -6110¢ |
| 2 | Babydoll – Dominic Fike | 3335.0% | $24.5K | 3335¢ | -3235¢ |
| 3 | Swim – BTS | 230.0% | $43.4K | 230¢ | -130¢ |
| 4 | Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj | 155.0% | $15.2K | 155¢ | -55¢ |
| 5 | Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy | 70.0% | $3.4K | 70¢ | 30¢ |
| 6 | hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande | 55.0% | $1.8K | 55¢ | 45¢ |
| 7 | Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo | 40.0% | $2.1K | 40¢ | 60¢ |
| 8 | Risk It All – Bruno Mars | 30.0% | $2.4K | 30¢ | 70¢ |
| 9 | Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars | 5.0% | $1.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 10 | APT. – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars | 5.0% | $620 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 11 | Stateside – PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson | 5.0% | $834 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 12 | Man I Need – Olivia Dean | 5.0% | $1.0K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 13 | Billie Jean – Michael Jackson | 5.0% | $1.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 14 | stupid song – Olivia Rodrigo | 5.0% | $688 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁決規則
Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed song (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify song globally for 2026.
This market will resolve according to the name of the song listed by Spotify as the top song of 2026.
If multiple songs tie for top song for 2026, this market will resolve according to the song whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If Spotify does not release who their top song for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped.
Note: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Sep 8, 2026
- 04:11 AMMAmarksman$27.03
Bought 42.90626 Yes for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.63
- 03:08 AMMIMiaomi666$1.39
Sold 2.1 No for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.66
- 02:44 AM0X0x80e9F3b8e34027A7f4C7517d7E3d56A5A5B438A8-1728423274773$7.39
Bought 19.9729 No for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.37
- 02:24 AMTOtomonyc$0.37
Sold 0.6 Yes for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.61
- 02:23 AMTOtomonyc$0.08
Sold 0.26 Yes for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.32
- 01:25 AMENeNakeVets$1.00
Sold 100 Yes for Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026? at 0.01
Sep 7, 2026
- 09:09 PMSHshinramyvn$45.75
Sold 75 Yes for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.61
- 09:09 PMPMpmmmmmmmmmmmmmm$8.00
Bought 20.514139 No for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.39
- 05:19 PMDAdarkaurora$6.00
Sold 20 Yes for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.3
- 05:18 PMLIlihood91211$2.48
Sold 8.28 Yes for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.3
- 05:15 PMCHchocolate123$12.94
Sold 43.14 Yes for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.3
- 05:15 PMCHchocolate123$1.15
Sold 114.69 Yes for Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026? at 0.01
常見問題
目前市場對「Top Spotify Song 2026」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,End of Beginning – Djo 以 6,210% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Babydoll – Dominic Fike(3,335%),以及 Swim – BTS(230%)。該市場總成交量已達 $124.7K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
