
The Game Awards: Best Multiplayer
核心摘要
根據「The Game Awards: Best Multiplayer」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Marathon 以壓倒性的 800% 獲勝機率主導市場;Palworld 以 800% 位居第二,Ghost of Yotei: Legends 以 750% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Marathon (800%):Marathon 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 800¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Palworld (800%):作為最可行的替代選項,Palworld 保持著 800% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 800¢。
- Ghost of Yotei: Legends (750%):以 750% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Ghost of Yotei: Legends 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Halo: Campaign Evolved (750%)、Grand Theft Auto VI (750%),以及 Exoborne (750%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Fellowship 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marathon | 800.0% | — | 800¢ | -700¢ |
| 2 | Palworld | 800.0% | — | 800¢ | -700¢ |
| 3 | Ghost of Yotei: Legends | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 4 | Halo: Campaign Evolved | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 5 | Grand Theft Auto VI | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 6 | Exoborne | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 7 | Fellowship | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 8 | Hytale | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 9 | Subnautica 2 | 750.0% | — | 750¢ | -650¢ |
| 10 | 2XKO | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 11 | Reanimal | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 12 | World of Warcraft: Midnight | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 13 | Forza Horizon 6 | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 14 | Marvel Tokon: Fighting Souls | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 15 | Gears of War: E-Day | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 16 | Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 17 | The Duskbloods | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 18 | Enshrouded | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 19 | Grounded 2 | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 20 | Monster Hunter Wilds: Ascendance | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
| 21 | Deadlock | 700.0% | — | 700¢ | -600¢ |
裁決規則
The Game Awards are presented annually to honor achievements in the video game industry. The 2026 Game Awards are currently scheduled to be presented on December 10, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video game that wins the 2026 Game Award for Best Multiplayer.
If a game is not officially nominated for the 2026 Game Award for Best Multiplayer when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated game whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from The Game Awards, including data from their website (e.g., https://thegameawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
常見問題
目前市場對「The Game Awards: Best Multiplayer」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Marathon 以 800% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Palworld(800%),以及 Ghost of Yotei: Legends(750%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
