Texas Senate and Governor Combo

根據「Texas Senate and Governor Combo」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 以壓倒性的 4,200% 獲勝機率主導市場；Reps sweep 以 3,400% 位居第二，Dems sweep 以 2,350% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $4.4K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate (4,200%)：Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 4,200¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Reps sweep (3,400%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Reps sweep 保持著 3,400% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 3,400¢。
• Dems sweep (2,350%)：以 2,350% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Dems sweep 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate (405%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Texas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".

For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.