Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?

根據「Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，November 5 以壓倒性的 96.4% 獲勝機率主導市場；November 6 以 78.5% 位居第二，November 8 以 52.1% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $98.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• November 5 (96.4%)：November 5 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 96¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $50.6K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• November 6 (78.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，November 6 保持著 78.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 79¢。
• November 8 (52.1%)：以 52.1% 的機率位列第三，市場對 November 8 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 November 7 (49%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 November 7 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia or the armed forces of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, including forces formally under the Presidential Leadership Council, whether or not operating as part of the Saudi-led coalition. A strike will qualify if it is attributed to any of these parties, regardless of which of them conducted it. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or other proxy forces will not qualify.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and armed forces of Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s internationally recognized government and its armed forces, the Saudi-led coalition, the Houthis, and a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：November 8 當前交易價為 52.1%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 4.6%，形成 -47.5% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 November 7 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 49% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 57.7%——形成可觀的 +8.7% EV 差。