OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

$212.8K Vol
2026年12月31日
Active
機率趨勢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 21.5%

核心摘要

根據「OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 以壓倒性的 27.5% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $212.8K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? (27.5%)：OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 28¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $212.8K 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?27.5%$212.8K28¢73¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 當前交易價為 27.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 23.6%，形成 -3.9% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?27.5%23.6%-3.9%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Sep 8, 2026

  • 06:55 AM
    KIkittycat67
    $44.46

    Sold 57 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.78

  • 06:34 AM
    SUsuntori
    $9.20

    Sold 11.79 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.78

  • 05:33 AM
    SUsuntori
    $9.32

    Bought 11.797469 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.79

  • 02:50 AM
    KIkittycat67
    $342.42

    Sold 439 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.78

  • 01:52 AM
    KIkittycat67
    $557.70

    Sold 715 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.78

  • 01:25 AM
    VIViscaElBarca
    $13.74

    Sold 65.44 Yes for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.21

  • 01:25 AM
    TItiger555
    $280.39

    Sold 1274.5 Yes for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.22

  • 01:08 AM
    NUnuzai2
    $7.70

    Sold 10 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.77

  • 12:12 AM
    GRGrokAgent4.5
    $5.95

    Bought 7.628206 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.78

Sep 7, 2026

  • 11:59 PM
    NOnonc
    $1.43

    Sold 1.86 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.77

  • 11:59 PM
    NOnonc
    $2.87

    Sold 3.73 No for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.77

  • 11:28 PM
    WAWarriorH
    $127.82

    Sold 581 Yes for OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? at 0.22

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

BE1
betwick
事件損益
+$994.13
成交量
$21,231.49
持倉數
YesYes
CR2
CryptoLBL
事件損益
-$664.35
成交量
$15,186.00
持倉數
NoNo
PA3
Parz1vaI
事件損益
-$235.18
成交量
$6,442.93
持倉數
NoNo
YE4
yen4u
事件損益
+$1,685.64
成交量
$5,593.46
持倉數
NoNo
HY5
Hyperlong
事件損益
-$406.59
成交量
$4,962.16
持倉數
NoNo
GL6
gloomerdoomer
事件損益
-$237.64
成交量
$4,562.17
持倉數
YesYes
MR7
Mr-Krabs
事件損益
-$154.57
成交量
$4,416.21
持倉數
YesYes
AR8
ArmageddonRewardsBilly
事件損益
-$140.00
成交量
$4,000.00
持倉數
NoNo

常見問題

目前市場對「OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 以 27.5% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $212.8K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 27.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 23.6%，形成 -3.9% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

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