Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of November?

根據「Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of November?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，$140 以壓倒性的 91.8% 獲勝機率主導市場；$150 以 86.7% 位居第二，$160 以 76.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $85.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• $140 (91.8%)：$140 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 92¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• $150 (86.7%)：作為最可行的替代選項，$150 保持著 86.7% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 87¢。
• $160 (76.5%)：以 76.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 $160 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 $170 (63%)、$180 (49%)，以及 $190 (32.5%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 $200 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for NVIDIA (NVDA) on the final trading day of November 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

If NVIDIA (NVDA) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50.

For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used.

If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.

In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.

The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for NVIDIA (NVDA) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.NVDA%2FUSD.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：$140 當前交易價為 91.8%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 86%，形成 -5.8% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 $180 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 49% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 69.2%——形成可觀的 +20.2% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 $170（EV 差：+14.6%）以及 $160（EV 差：+10.6%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。