Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by...?

根據「Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 98% 獲勝機率主導市場；November 30 以 90.5% 位居第二，November 15 以 70% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $31.3K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (98%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 98¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $2.4K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• November 30 (90.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，November 30 保持著 90.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 91¢。
• November 15 (70%)：以 70% 的機率位列第三，市場對 November 15 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's next GPT Sol model (6.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Sol" and be designated as version 6.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 6.2 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-6 Sol or GPT-6.1 Sol would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-7 Sol or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Sol" or which retain a version designation below 6.2, such as GPT-6.1 Sol (released September 29, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, GPT-6 Luna, or GPT-6 Astra, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-6.1 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：November 15 當前交易價為 70%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 55.7%，形成 -14.3% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。