Nationwide ground stop lifted by...?

根據「Nationwide ground stop lifted by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，November 15, 12:00 AM ET 以壓倒性的 9,400% 獲勝機率主導市場；November 14, 12:00 PM ET 以 7,800% 位居第二，November 14, 12:00 AM ET 以 7,750% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $10.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• November 15, 12:00 AM ET (9,400%)：November 15, 12:00 AM ET 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,400¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $706 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• November 14, 12:00 PM ET (7,800%)：作為最可行的替代選項，November 14, 12:00 PM ET 保持著 7,800% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 7,800¢。
• November 14, 12:00 AM ET (7,750%)：以 7,750% 的機率位列第三，市場對 November 14, 12:00 AM ET 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 November 13, 10:00 PM ET (5,050%)、November 13, 8:00 PM ET (4,100%)，以及 November 13, 6:00 PM ET (700%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 November 13, 10:00 PM ET 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The FAA issued a nationwide ground stop for flights departing U.S. airports on November 13, 2026 (see: https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/13/us/faa-nationwide-ground-stop).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the FAA, the U.S. Department of Transportation, or their authorized representatives officially announce that this nationwide ground stop is no longer in effect between market creation and the listed date and time (inclusive of the listed minute). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must communicate that the nationwide (all-airports) ground stop is cancelled or otherwise no longer in effect, including where it is replaced by narrower ground stops or other traffic management initiatives at individual airports or regions. Announcements that the ground stop is lifted for, or does not affect, specific airports, regions, or flights while the nationwide ground stop remains in effect will not count.

An announcement that the ground stop will end at a future time will not qualify until its effective time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FAA & the Department of Transportation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.