Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

$2M Vol
2027年1月1日
Active
機率趨勢
December 31 7.5%

核心摘要

根據「Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 7.7% 獲勝機率主導市場。該市場的下注量已達 $2M，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • December 31 (7.7%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 8¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $249.4K 的成交量。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1December 317.7%$249.4K8¢92¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：December 31 當前交易價為 7.7%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 6%，形成 -1.7% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
December 317.7%6.0%-1.7%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Oct 25, 2026

  • 04:49 PM
    POPorx
    $92.00

    Bought 100 No for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.92

  • 02:23 PM
    0X0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495
    $23.00

    Sold 25 No for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.92

  • 01:57 PM
    YOYousnoozeyoulose
    $4.55

    Sold 65 Yes for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.07

  • 01:01 PM
    0X0x023490fc5c34e533a1b088e7f6325324cbfd1533-1792622773244
    $2.48

    Bought 30.98 Yes for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.08

  • 12:51 PM
    OXOxae5839b89d47738616264276Ac1F0D77F936E5C5
    $3.71

    Bought 3.991369 No for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.93

  • 12:51 PM
    OXOxae5839b89d47738616264276Ac1F0D77F936E5C5
    $2.80

    Sold 3.04 No for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.92

  • 12:51 PM
    OXOxae5839b89d47738616264276Ac1F0D77F936E5C5
    $2.76

    Sold 3 No for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.92

  • 12:50 PM
    OXOxae5839b89d47738616264276Ac1F0D77F936E5C5
    $1.90

    Bought 2.038835 No for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.93

  • 12:49 PM
    OXOxae5839b89d47738616264276Ac1F0D77F936E5C5
    $1.89

    Bought 2.028041 No for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.93

  • 12:49 PM
    FRFrozenTomato
    $17.65

    Bought 18.98 No for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.93

  • 12:49 PM
    0X0x023490fc5c34e533a1b088e7f6325324cbfd1533-1792622773244
    $112.00

    Bought 1400 Yes for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.08

  • 10:06 AM
    ZGZgzwng
    $5.36

    Bought 66.983553 Yes for Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? at 0.08

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

LY1
lymphnatic
事件損益
+$705.71
成交量
$39,622.26
持倉數
Yes
QM2
QMG-SCALAR
事件損益
-$384.63
成交量
$20,456.03
持倉數
No
QM3
QMG-CORE
事件損益
-$557.68
成交量
$19,926.37
持倉數
No
DE4
DEGENKHAN
事件損益
-$407.00
成交量
$15,628.69
持倉數
No
KR5
Kris-Future
事件損益
+$133.21
成交量
$13,697.35
持倉數
Yes
GO6
gods-eye
事件損益
+$249.79
成交量
$9,699.99
持倉數
Yes
AN7
Anon2Anon
事件損益
+$187.63
成交量
$9,027.78
持倉數
Yes
028
0x0234…3244
事件損益
+$37.01
成交量
$8,491.34
持倉數
Yes

常見問題

目前市場對「Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，December 31 以 7.7% 的獲勝機率領跑。該市場總成交量已達 $2M，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 December 31 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 7.7%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 6%，形成 -1.7% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

開始交易