Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

$2.1M Vol

2026年12月31日

Active

機率趨勢

December 31, 2026 12.5%

June 30, 2026 0.9%

December 31, 2025 0.1%

核心摘要

根據「Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31, 2026 以壓倒性的 13% 獲勝機率主導市場；June 30, 2026 以 1.1% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $2.1M，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

December 31, 2026 (13%)：December 31, 2026 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 13¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $632.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

June 30, 2026 (1.1%)：作為最可行的替代選項，June 30, 2026 保持著 1.1% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 1¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名	預測結果	獲勝機率	成交量	買入 Yes（成本）	買入 No（成本）
1	December 31, 2026	13.0%	$632.3K	13¢	87¢
2	June 30, 2026	1.1%	$618.6K	1¢	99¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 June 30, 2026 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 1.1% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 14.1%——形成可觀的 +13% EV 差。

Market	Trade Value	Fair Value	EV Gap
December 31, 2026	13.0%	17.8%	+4.8%
June 30, 2026Best EV	1.1%	14.1%	+13.0%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Jun 30, 2026

04:21 AM
JKjkdashahw5fasdhfffdsg
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
JKjkdashahwfasdhfffdsg
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
JKjkd5ashahwfasdhfffdsg
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
JKjkdasha5hwfasdhfffdsg
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
JKjkdas5hahwfasdhfffdsg
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
JKjkdash5ahwfasdhfffdsg
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
JKjkdashah5wfasdhfffdsg
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
JKjkdashah5fasdhfffdsg
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
JKjkdashahwf5asdh
$0.99
Sold 1 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0.99
04:21 AM
SIsirmisterk
$0.00
Sold 1 Yes for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 0
03:42 AM
JKjkdashahwfasdhfffdsg
$1.00
Bought 1.004015 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 1
03:41 AM
JKjkdas5hahwfasdhfffdsg
$1.00
Bought 1.004015 No for Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? at 1

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

DE1

denizz

Event PnL

+$2,169.57

Volume

$17,792.58

Positions

NoNo

MN2

mnbdegen

Event PnL

-$2,195.38

Volume

$12,526.85

Positions

Yes

KO3

KokoVeLeon1

Event PnL

+$2,154.74

Volume

$12,501.97

Positions

SH4

Shalomiko

Event PnL

-$655.69

Volume

$3,951.21

Positions

YesYes

ME5

MEPP

Event PnL

+$435.62

Volume

$2,391.88

Positions

6A6

0x6a6d…8587

Event PnL

-$381.10

Volume

$2,223.53

Positions

Yes

PO7

PolyJaguar

Event PnL

-$38.05

Volume

$2,171.41

Positions

Yes

TR8

trashpilot

Event PnL

-$23.95

Volume

$2,045.11

Positions

YesYes

常見問題

目前市場對「Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，December 31, 2026 以 13% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 June 30, 2026（1.1%）。該市場總成交量已達 $2.1M，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一輪測算顯示，June 30, 2026 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 1.1%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 14.1%——形成 +13% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。