Iran invades Kuwait by...?

根據「Iran invades Kuwait by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，December 31 以壓倒性的 600% 獲勝機率主導市場；October 31 以 290% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $1.1M，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• December 31 (600%)：December 31 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 600¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $712 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• October 31 (290%)：作為最可行的替代選項，October 31 保持著 290% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 290¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify.

Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.

Only the entry of Iranian military forces into the territory of Kuwait must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Iranian military forces enter the territory of Kuwait by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Kuwait, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.

Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Iranian state and establish de facto control over territory.

Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Kuwait and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.