Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

根據「Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，July 15 以壓倒性的 13.3% 獲勝機率主導市場；August 31 以 5.5% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $2.7M，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• July 15 (13.3%)：July 15 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 13¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• August 31 (5.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，August 31 保持著 5.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 6¢。

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”

A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.

A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services. Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).

Both of the following are required to occur prior to the specified date, 11:59 PM ET to satisfy this market’s resolution criteria:

1) An official announcement from the Iranian government that such a fee is being, or will be, implemented.

2) A consensus of credible reporting that collection of the fee has begun.

Fees charged by Oman, the United Arab Emirates, shipping insurers, private companies, or other non-Iranian entities do not qualify unless charged jointly with Iran, or if Iran directly receives the fee or controls the charging entity. Normal port fees, customs duties, sanctions-related costs, or shipping surcharges do not alone qualify.

The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of Iran and consensus of credible reporting.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 July 15 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 13.3% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 42.2%——形成可觀的 +29% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 August 31（EV 差：+13.2%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。