Gemini Carbon released on...?

根據「Gemini Carbon released on...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，November 10 以壓倒性的 47.8% 獲勝機率主導市場；November 12 以 15.2% 位居第二，November 11 以 11.3% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $105.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• November 10 (47.8%)：November 10 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 48¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $30.7K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• November 12 (15.2%)：作為最可行的替代選項，November 12 保持著 15.2% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 15¢。
• November 11 (11.3%)：以 11.3% 的機率位列第三，市場對 November 11 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 25.8%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 November 9 (8.1%)、November 27 (5.3%)，以及 November 18 (4.6%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 November 3 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google.

A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

• 最被高估的結果：November 10 當前交易價為 47.8%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 14.9%，形成 -32.9% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
• 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 No release by November 30 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 2.8% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 17.8%——形成可觀的 +15% EV 差。
• 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 November 11（EV 差：+9.7%）以及 November 13（EV 差：+2.3%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。