Fed Decision in January?

根據「Fed Decision in January?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No change 以壓倒性的 5,750% 獲勝機率主導市場；25 bps increase 以 2,450% 位居第二，25 bps decrease 以 1,700% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $32，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No change (5,750%)：No change 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,750¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• 25 bps increase (2,450%)：作為最可行的替代選項，25 bps increase 保持著 2,450% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2,450¢。
• 25 bps decrease (1,700%)：以 1,700% 的機率位列第三，市場對 25 bps decrease 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。

🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）

在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：

• 替代選項：包括 50+ bps decrease (1,300%)，以及 50+ bps increase (1,100%)。
• 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 50+ bps decrease 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.