Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

根據「Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，No 以壓倒性的 9,845% 獲勝機率主導市場；Yes 以 155% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $136.4K，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• No (9,845%)：No 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 9,845¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Yes (155%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Yes 保持著 155% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 155¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.

"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.