Ethereum ETF Flows on November 2?

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2026年11月3日
Active
機率趨勢
Positive 50.0%
Negative 50.0%

核心摘要

根據「Ethereum ETF Flows on November 2?」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前,Positive 以壓倒性的 5,000% 獲勝機率主導市場;Negative 以 5,000% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 —,反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:

🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者

  • Positive (5,000%):Positive 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,000¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。

🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者

  • Negative (5,000%):作為最可行的替代選項,Negative 保持著 5,000% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 5,000¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes(成本)買入 No(成本)
1Positive5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢
2Negative5000.0%—5000¢-4900¢

裁決規則

This market will resolve to "Positive" if total Ethereum ETF flows on Monday, November 2, 2026 are greater than 0, and to "Negative" if they are less than 0.

If flows are exactly 0, the market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source is Farside Investors, specifically the ETF Flow tab available at https://farside.co.uk/eth/ in the "Total" column for the date specified in the title.

The total flows will be considered finalized for that day once flows for all ETF providers have been published. If data for any ETF provider remains unpublished by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the date specified in the title, the market will resolve based on all available data published up to that time.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or fails to publish any data by 12 PM ET, 2 days after the specified date, the market will resolve 50-50.

常見問題

目前市場對「Ethereum ETF Flows on November 2?」的共識是什麼?

截至最新更新,Positive 以 5,000% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Negative(5,000%)。該市場總成交量已達 —,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

開始交易