Bulgaria Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

$47.7K Vol
2026年11月2日
Active
機率趨勢
Andrey Gyurov 93.0%
Iliana Iotova 5.7%

核心摘要

根據「Bulgaria Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Andrey Gyurov 以壓倒性的 96.7% 獲勝機率主導市場；Iliana Iotova 以 2.4% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $47.7K，反映出市場的高度關注。

競爭梯隊拆解

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

  • Andrey Gyurov (96.7%)：Andrey Gyurov 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 97¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $23.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

  • Iliana Iotova (2.4%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Iliana Iotova 保持著 2.4% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 2¢。

完整訂單簿與定價面板

下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：

排名預測結果獲勝機率成交量買入 Yes（成本）買入 No（成本）
1Andrey Gyurov96.7%$23.8K97¢3¢
2Iliana Iotova2.4%$23.9K2¢98¢

裁決規則

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bulgaria on November 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Bulgaria and reported by the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (CIK) under “Outside the country” (“Извън страната”).

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission of Bulgaria (Централна избирателна комисия, CIK) (e.g., https://results.cik.bg/).

AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差

人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。

將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。

頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會

根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：

  • 最被高估的結果：Andrey Gyurov 當前交易價為 96.7%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 91.2%，形成 -5.4% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Andrey Gyurov96.7%91.2%-5.4%
Iliana Iotova2.4%1.8%-0.6%

交易動態

以下是該事件的交易動態。

Nov 1, 2026

  • 10:22 AM
    MSMSFTQQQ
    $939.63

    Bought 1055.76 Yes for Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.89

  • 10:22 AM
    ——
    $8.65

    Sold 96.15 Yes for Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.09

  • 10:20 AM
    ——
    $9.62

    Bought 96.153847 Yes for Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.1

  • 10:03 AM
    LULucerys
    $2.45

    Bought 35 No for Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.07

  • 10:03 AM
    JOJordanMooney
    $11.52

    Bought 115.232324 No for Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.1

  • 10:03 AM
    JOJordanMooney
    $2.01

    Bought 20.101011 No for Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.1

  • 10:03 AM
    LELesterDiamond
    $5.15

    Bought 51.526263 No for Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.1

  • 10:03 AM
    BAbalthazar
    $22.80

    Bought 380 No for Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.06

  • 10:03 AM
    0X0x4f1a1eae1Ba4CB2A7D2950b45c3C88Db9dFe0613-1763367176943
    $22.50

    Bought 225 No for Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.1

  • 10:03 AM
    GIGingerMcKenna
    $10.43

    Bought 173.846154 No for Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.06

  • 10:03 AM
    CRCryptoVagabond
    $197.02

    Bought 1791.078572 Yes for Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.11

  • 08:17 AM
    CBCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed
    $9.95

    Bought 10.47 No for Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad? at 0.95

正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
事件損益
+$10,191.27
成交量
$20,111.05
持倉數
NoNo
MS2
MSFTQQQ
事件損益
-$23.56
成交量
$4,145.54
持倉數
YesNo
DE3
delphy
事件損益
-$30.36
成交量
$3,944.44
持倉數
Yes
MI4
Michael-The-Taxiarch
事件損益
+$192.81
成交量
$3,508.87
持倉數
Yes
CO5
coco040678
事件損益
-$30.64
成交量
$3,238.47
持倉數
Yes
GA6
GamGanapati
事件損益
-$14.81
成交量
$2,480.96
持倉數
YesYes
CR7
CryptoVagabond
事件損益
-$28.06
成交量
$1,791.08
持倉數
Yes
XT8
xtxpleasecallme
事件損益
-$20.02
成交量
$1,758.10
持倉數
No

常見問題

目前市場對「Bulgaria Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad」的共識是什麼？

截至最新更新，Andrey Gyurov 以 96.7% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Iliana Iotova（2.4%）。該市場總成交量已達 $47.7K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。

AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？

即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。

市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？

是的——資料顯示市場對 Andrey Gyurov 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 96.7%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 91.2%，形成 -5.4% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。

開始交易