
Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker
核心摘要
根據「Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker」的最新預測市場資料,交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前,Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Game Spread +/-5.5 以壓倒性的 6,850% 獲勝機率主導市場;Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Total Sets: O/U 2.5 以 6,500% 位居第二,Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 O/U 10.5 以 5,850% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $88.4K,反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置,可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊:
🥇 第一梯隊:絕對領跑者
- Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Game Spread +/-5.5 (6,850%):Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Game Spread +/-5.5 目前擁有最高機率,深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 6,850¢,顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $198 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊:主要挑戰者
- Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Total Sets: O/U 2.5 (6,500%):作為最可行的替代選項,Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Total Sets: O/U 2.5 保持著 6,500% 的成真機率,其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 6,500¢。
- Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 O/U 10.5 (5,850%):以 5,850% 的機率位列第三,市場對 Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 O/U 10.5 持謹慎懷疑態度,除非勢頭轉變,否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊:長尾選項(合計約 0%)
在前三名之外,還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低,但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖:
- 替代選項:包括 Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set Handicap +/-1.5 (5,450%)、Completed Match (5,000%),以及 Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 O/U 9.5 (5,000%)。
- 投機成交:儘管統計機率偏低,像 Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 2 O/U 8.5 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes(成本) | 買入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Game Spread +/-5.5 | 6850.0% | $198 | 6850¢ | -6750¢ |
| 2 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 6500.0% | $384 | 6500¢ | -6400¢ |
| 3 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 5850.0% | — | 5850¢ | -5750¢ |
| 4 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5450.0% | $192 | 5450¢ | -5350¢ |
| 5 | Completed Match | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 6 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 7 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 8 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 9 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 10 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 21.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 11 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 22.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 12 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Match O/U 23.5 | 5000.0% | — | 5000¢ | -4900¢ |
| 13 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 Winner | 3750.0% | $303 | 3750¢ | -3650¢ |
| 14 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 3350.0% | — | 3350¢ | -3250¢ |
| 15 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 3100.0% | $192 | 3100¢ | -3000¢ |
| 16 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker | 2550.0% | $52.4K | 2550¢ | -2450¢ |
| 17 | Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 2 Winner | 2450.0% | — | 2450¢ | -2350¢ |
裁決規則
This market refers to the tennis match between Federico Aguilar and Nicolas Kicker in the Villa Maria, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 8:00AM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Federico Aguilar' if Federico Aguilar advances against Nicolas Kicker.
This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Kicker' if Nicolas Kicker advances against Federico Aguilar.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Nov 4, 2026
- 01:52 PMTUtuesdaycoffee$15.71
Bought 35.7 Nicolas Kicker for Game Spread: Nicolas Kicker (-5.5) vs Federico Aguilar (+5.5) at 0.44
- 01:52 PMTUtuesdaycoffee$28.51
Bought 63.35 Nicolas Kicker for Game Spread: Nicolas Kicker (-5.5) vs Federico Aguilar (+5.5) at 0.45
- 01:48 PMCYCypya$304.00
Bought 400 Nicolas Kicker for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.76
- 01:48 PM——$3.16
Bought 4.103895 Nicolas Kicker for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.77
- 01:47 PMSIsimbich$64.00
Sold 256 Federico Aguilar for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.25
- 01:42 PM3838791873984189$304.00
Sold 400 Nicolas Kicker for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.76
- 01:22 PMSIsimbich$54.24
Sold 226 Federico Aguilar for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.24
- 01:21 PMSIsimbich$58.32
Sold 243 Federico Aguilar for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.24
- 01:14 PMLULumens$1.20
Bought 5 Federico Aguilar for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.24
- 01:14 PMSIsimbich$61.72
Sold 257.16 Federico Aguilar for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.24
- 01:13 PMSIsimbich$296.42
Sold 1288.8 Federico Aguilar for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.23
- 01:09 PMCYCypya$112.50
Bought 150 Nicolas Kicker for Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker at 0.75
常見問題
目前市場對「Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker」的共識是什麼?
截至最新更新,Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Game Spread +/-5.5 以 6,850% 的獲勝機率領跑,其次是 Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Total Sets: O/U 2.5(6,500%),以及 Villa Maria: Federico Aguilar vs Nicolas Kicker Set 1 O/U 10.5(5,850%)。該市場總成交量已達 $88.4K,顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
