2028 Presidential Election: Virginia Winner

根據「2028 Presidential Election: Virginia Winner」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。

目前，Democratic Party 以壓倒性的 5,200% 獲勝機率主導市場；Republican Party 以 4,050% 位居第二。該市場的下注量已達 $60，反映出市場的高度關注。

為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：

🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者

• Democratic Party (5,200%)：Democratic Party 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 5,200¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $40 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者

• Republican Party (4,050%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Republican Party 保持著 4,050% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 4,050¢。

The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Virginia in the 2028 Presidential Election.

A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have.

This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used.

The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the statewide Virginia results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used.

This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.