2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
核心摘要
根據「2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Jean-Luc Mélenchon 以壓倒性的 95% 獲勝機率主導市場；Édouard Philippe 以 80% 位居第二，Nathalie Arthaud 以 78% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $115.9K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon (95%)：Jean-Luc Mélenchon 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 95¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $6.3K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Édouard Philippe (80%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Édouard Philippe 保持著 80% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 80¢。
- Nathalie Arthaud (78%)：以 78% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Nathalie Arthaud 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 Jordan Bardella (76%)、Bruno Retailleau (70.5%)，以及 Éric Zemmour (60.5%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 95.0% | $6.3K | 95¢ | 5¢ |
| 2 | Édouard Philippe | 80.0% | $7.7K | 80¢ | 20¢ |
| 3 | Nathalie Arthaud | 78.0% | $2.4K | 78¢ | 22¢ |
| 4 | Jordan Bardella | 76.0% | $2.7K | 76¢ | 24¢ |
| 5 | Bruno Retailleau | 70.5% | $6.3K | 71¢ | 30¢ |
| 6 | Éric Zemmour | 60.5% | $2.2K | 61¢ | 40¢ |
| 7 | Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 57.5% | $459 | 57¢ | 43¢ |
| 8 | Fabien Roussel | 56.5% | $2.5K | 56¢ | 44¢ |
| 9 | David Lisnard | 47.5% | $4.7K | 48¢ | 53¢ |
| 10 | Gabriel Attal | 43.0% | $4.5K | 43¢ | 57¢ |
| 11 | Sarah Knafo | 40.5% | $2.3K | 41¢ | 60¢ |
| 12 | Dominique de Villepin | 34.5% | $2.8K | 35¢ | 66¢ |
| 13 | Raphaël Glucksmann | 34.0% | $4.2K | 34¢ | 66¢ |
| 14 | Marine Tondelier | 33.0% | $1.1K | 33¢ | 67¢ |
| 15 | François Hollande | 30.5% | $4.6K | 31¢ | 70¢ |
| 16 | François Asselineau | 24.0% | $2.2K | 24¢ | 76¢ |
| 17 | François Ruffin | 22.5% | $845 | 23¢ | 78¢ |
| 18 | Marine Le Pen | 21.5% | $4.1K | 22¢ | 79¢ |
| 19 | Juan Branco | 15.5% | $3.0K | 16¢ | 85¢ |
| 20 | Xavier Bertrand | 14.5% | $2.3K | 14¢ | 86¢ |
| 21 | Matthieu Pigasse | 12.5% | $9.8K | 13¢ | 88¢ |
| 22 | Bernard Cazeneuve | 11.0% | $350 | 11¢ | 89¢ |
| 23 | Gérald Darmanin | 10.4% | $3.1K | 10¢ | 90¢ |
| 24 | Ségolène Royal | 9.5% | $1.6K | 10¢ | 91¢ |
| 25 | François Bayrou | 9.4% | $4.1K | 9¢ | 91¢ |
| 26 | Jean Castex | 9.4% | $1.7K | 9¢ | 91¢ |
| 27 | Carole Delga | 8.5% | $1.7K | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| 28 | Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 8.5% | $1.2K | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| 29 | Philippe de Villiers | 8.5% | $2.4K | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| 30 | Manuel Bompard | 7.5% | $2.7K | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| 31 | Delphine Batho | 7.5% | $567 | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| 32 | Jérôme Guedj | 7.5% | $1.7K | 8¢ | 93¢ |
| 33 | Olivier Faure | 6.5% | $862 | 7¢ | 94¢ |
| 34 | Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6.3% | $478 | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| 35 | Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6.0% | $1.5K | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| 36 | Karim Bouamrane | 6.0% | $2.4K | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| 37 | Bally Bagayoko | 5.8% | $1.2K | 6¢ | 94¢ |
| 38 | Clémentine Autain | 5.1% | $1.6K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 39 | Manuel Valls | 5.0% | $972 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 40 | Sébastien Lecornu | 4.0% | $345 | 4¢ | 96¢ |
| 41 | Mathilde Panot | 3.6% | $257 | 4¢ | 96¢ |
| 42 | Teddy Riner | 3.4% | $352 | 3¢ | 97¢ |
| 43 | Élisabeth Borne | 2.8% | $913 | 3¢ | 97¢ |
| 44 | Laurent Wauquiez | 2.6% | $6.4K | 3¢ | 97¢ |
| 45 | Valérie Pécresse | 2.1% | $388 | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| 46 | Michel Barnier | 1.9% | $2.1K | 2¢ | 98¢ |
裁決規則
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最被高估的結果：Sarah Knafo 當前交易價為 40.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 29.4%，形成 -11.1% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
- 最佳價值標的（最高 EV）：我們的模型將 Bally Bagayoko 識別為盤面上最具價值的機會。市場僅給予其 5.8% 的交易機率，而我們 AI 的公允價值評估為 33.7%——形成可觀的 +27.9% EV 差。
- 被忽視的黑馬：其他值得注意的偏離包括 Michel Barnier（EV 差：+16.4%）以及 Marine Tondelier（EV 差：+16%）。儘管我們的預測模型給予更強的統計支撐，這些長尾機會仍被即時訂單簿大幅低估。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 95.0% | 87.9% | -7.1% |
| Édouard Philippe | 80.0% | 84.6% | +4.6% |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 78.0% | 80.8% | +2.7% |
| Jordan Bardella | 76.0% | 76.5% | +0.5% |
| Bruno Retailleau | 70.5% | 72.9% | +2.4% |
| Éric Zemmour | 60.5% | 60.8% | +0.3% |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 57.5% | 49.7% | -7.8% |
| Fabien Roussel | 56.5% | 53.2% | -3.3% |
| David Lisnard | 47.5% | 57.2% | +9.7% |
| Gabriel Attal | 43.0% | 43.2% | +0.2% |
| Sarah Knafo | 40.5% | 29.4% | -11.1% |
| Dominique de Villepin | 34.5% | 46.5% | +12.0% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 34.0% | 44.0% | +10.0% |
| Marine Tondelier | 33.0% | 49.0% | +16.0% |
| François Hollande | 30.5% | 34.8% | +4.3% |
| François Asselineau | 24.0% | 26.9% | +2.9% |
| François Ruffin | 22.5% | 27.3% | +4.8% |
| Marine Le Pen | 21.5% | 20.0% | -1.5% |
| Juan Branco | 15.5% | 16.6% | +1.1% |
| Xavier Bertrand | 14.5% | 13.8% | -0.7% |
| Matthieu Pigasse | 12.5% | 14.6% | +2.1% |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 11.0% | 1.0% | -10.0% |
| Gérald Darmanin | 10.4% | 7.6% | -2.9% |
| Ségolène Royal | 9.5% | 8.2% | -1.3% |
| François Bayrou | 9.4% | 3.0% | -6.5% |
| Jean Castex | 9.4% | 8.6% | -0.8% |
| Carole Delga | 8.5% | 15.3% | +6.7% |
| Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 8.5% | 10.4% | +1.9% |
| Philippe de Villiers | 8.5% | 9.4% | +0.9% |
| Manuel Bompard | 7.5% | 1.0% | -6.5% |
| Delphine Batho | 7.5% | 1.0% | -6.5% |
| Jérôme Guedj | 7.5% | 9.5% | +2.0% |
| Olivier Faure | 6.5% | 9.4% | +2.9% |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 6.3% | 8.5% | +2.2% |
| Jean-Michel Fauvergue | 6.0% | 4.3% | -1.7% |
| Karim Bouamrane | 6.0% | 5.6% | -0.4% |
| Bally BagayokoBest EV | 5.8% | 33.7% | +27.9% |
| Clémentine Autain | 5.1% | 4.8% | -0.3% |
| Manuel Valls | 5.0% | 4.7% | -0.3% |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 4.0% | 1.0% | -3.0% |
| Mathilde Panot | 3.6% | 1.0% | -2.6% |
| Teddy Riner | 3.4% | 3.9% | +0.5% |
| Élisabeth Borne | 2.8% | 1.0% | -1.8% |
| Laurent Wauquiez | 2.6% | 5.5% | +2.8% |
| Valérie Pécresse | 2.1% | 2.8% | +0.7% |
| Michel Barnier | 1.9% | 18.4% | +16.4% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Jun 30, 2026
- 08:03 AMCOColala$2.08
Sold 2.97 No for Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.7
- 08:02 AMCOColala$1.30
Sold 4.47 Yes for Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.29
Jun 29, 2026
- 07:18 PMWFwfsxfwetrdsf$1.12
Sold 11.16 Yes for Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.1
- 07:17 PMSUsushilord$10.04
Bought 11.160711 No for Will Gérald Darmanin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.9
- 07:15 PMSUsushilord$5.02
Bought 5.17597 No for Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.97
- 07:14 PMSUsushilord$5.00
Bought 5.319133 No for Will Ségolène Royal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.94
- 07:13 PMSUsushilord$9.99
Bought 10.74113 No for Will Valérie Pécresse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.93
- 06:59 PMZGzgmzgm$2.00
Bought 6.666665 Yes for Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.3
- 01:07 PMG.G.Hchen$53.00
Bought 100 Yes for Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.53
- 12:09 PMLULucieC.$93.01
Sold 106.91 No for Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.87
- 12:01 PM0X0x31d9BA7c9c7508694d6693779769E4167249Bb17-1780837940838$5.18
Bought 6.4 No for Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.81
- 10:28 AMDRDr.PNL$68.86
Sold 71.73 No for Will Mathilde Panot be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? at 0.96
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Jean-Luc Mélenchon 以 95% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Édouard Philippe（80%），以及 Nathalie Arthaud（78%）。該市場總成交量已達 $115.9K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
目前哪個結果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一輪測算顯示，Bally Bagayoko 是最顯著的錯誤定價。市場對其隱含機率僅給到 5.8%，而我們的 AI 測算其公允價值為 33.7%——形成 +27.9% 的期望值差，是該市場中最具價值的標的。
市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？
是的——資料顯示市場對 Sarah Knafo 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 40.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 29.4%，形成 -11.1% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。
長尾資料中是否藏有高價值的黑馬選項？
當然有。除了頭部結果之外，我們的模型在排名靠後的選項中發現了被低估的潛力。Michel Barnier 擁有 +16.4% 的正 EV 差，Marine Tondelier 則為 +16%。儘管量化層面更有支撐，這些合約仍被即時訂單簿低估。