2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships: To Reach Quarterfinals (Mixed Doubles)
核心摘要
根據「2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships: To Reach Quarterfinals (Mixed Doubles)」的最新預測市場資料，交易者已形成強烈共識。
目前，Ben Johns / Anna Leigh Waters 以壓倒性的 93.7% 獲勝機率主導市場；Parris Todd / Andrei Daescu 以 81.5% 位居第二，Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud 以 43.5% 排名第三。該市場的下注量已達 $1.6K，反映出市場的高度關注。
競爭梯隊拆解
為了更好地評估各潛在結果的位置，可依據隱含機率與合約定價將市場劃分為三個明顯的交易梯隊：
🥇 第一梯隊：絕對領跑者
- Ben Johns / Anna Leigh Waters (93.7%)：Ben Johns / Anna Leigh Waters 目前擁有最高機率，深受訂單簿青睞。看好該結果的交易者面對的「Buy Yes」合約價為 94¢，顯示出市場的高度確信。僅該合約就已產生 $239 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯隊：主要挑戰者
- Parris Todd / Andrei Daescu (81.5%)：作為最可行的替代選項，Parris Todd / Andrei Daescu 保持著 81.5% 的成真機率，其「Buy Yes」份額目前成交價為 82¢。
- Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud (43.5%)：以 43.5% 的機率位列第三，市場對 Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud 持謹慎懷疑態度，除非勢頭轉變，否則視其為外圍黑馬。
🥉 第三梯隊：長尾選項（合計約 0%）
在前三名之外，還有大量宏觀變數與冷門結果被持續追蹤。儘管單個機率偏低，但它們是投機交易者的重要對沖：
- 替代選項：包括 Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth (14.5%)。
- 投機成交：儘管統計機率偏低，像 Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth 這類長尾合約仍吸引著可觀的關注。
完整訂單簿與定價面板
下表列出了該預測池中所有結果的合約價格、機率與市場深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 預測結果 | 獲勝機率 | 成交量 | 買入 Yes（成本） | 買入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Johns / Anna Leigh Waters | 93.7% | $239 | 94¢ | 6¢ |
| 2 | Parris Todd / Andrei Daescu | 81.5% | $200 | 82¢ | 19¢ |
| 3 | Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud | 43.5% | $120 | 44¢ | 57¢ |
| 4 | Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth | 14.5% | $831 | 14¢ | 86¢ |
裁決規則
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed partnership reaches the Quarterfinals of the 2026 PPA: Opendoor Pickleball World Championships Mixed Doubles Tournament. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No".
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed partnership to reach the Quarterfinals of the 2026 PPA: Opendoor Pickleball World Championships Mixed Doubles Tournament (e.g. they are eliminated, withdraw, or are disqualified), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 PPA: Opendoor Pickleball World Championships Mixed Doubles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the partnerships that reached the Quarterfinals have not been officially confirmed by the Professional Pickleball Association within that timeframe, this market will resolve 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Professional Pickleball Association (https://ppatour.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI 估值分析：發現市場錯誤定價與 EV 差
人群共識與投機成交塑造了更宏觀的預測市場，而我們的量化演算法提供了資料驅動的反向視角。透過分析基本面訊號、底層趨勢與歷史分布，我們的 AI 估值模型為每個結果獨立測算出一個「公允價值」機率。
將該公允價值與當前交易價值對比，可揭示出重大背離——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表統計上被低估的結果，而負 EV 差則提示市場可能存在反應過度。
頂級 AI Alpha 與錯誤定價套利機會
根據最新一輪資料模型測算，以下幾個關鍵合約存在顯著偏離：
- 最被高估的結果：Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud 當前交易價為 43.5%，但我們的 AI 測算其公允價值僅為 1%，形成 -42.5% 的較大負 EV 差，表明人群可能過度炒作該結果、把溢價推得過高。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Johns / Anna Leigh Waters | 93.7% | 88.7% | -4.9% |
| Parris Todd / Andrei Daescu | 81.5% | 68.0% | -13.5% |
| Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud | 43.5% | 1.0% | -42.5% |
| Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth | 14.5% | 1.0% | -13.5% |
交易動態
以下是該事件的交易動態。
Oct 31, 2026
- 09:25 AMNENetEng$30.00
Bought 37.97468 Yes for Will Rachel Rohrabacher / Christian Alshon advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.79
- 06:51 AMTItitle1$42.59
Bought 59.99 Yes for Will Tyra Hurricane Black / Gabriel Tardio advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.71
- 06:51 AMTItitle1$51.20
Bought 80 Yes for Will Parris Todd / Andrei Daescu advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.64
- 06:50 AMTItitle1$4.22
Bought 20.1 No for Will Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.21
Oct 30, 2026
- 05:42 PMTItitle1$93.93
Sold 110.5 No for Will Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.85
- 03:22 PMSQSquasherRewards$2.80
Sold 20 Yes for Will Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.14
- 01:45 PM——$3.20
Sold 20 Yes for Will Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.16
- 01:24 PMHHHHR-TEST1$3.00
Sold 20 Yes for Will Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.15
- 12:37 PMTItitle1$2.20
Bought 20 Yes for Will Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.11
- 12:37 PMTItitle1$291.87
Bought 423 No for Will Riley Newman / Layne Sleeth advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.69
- 12:26 PMTYtymedu$2.20
Sold 20 Yes for Will Sahra Dennehy / Tama Shimabukuro advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.11
- 12:18 PMNENetEng$20.00
Bought 22.471909 Yes for Will Anna Bright / Hayden Patriquin advance to the Quarterfinals in Mixed Doubles at the 2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships? at 0.89
正在押注該事件的鯨魚錢包
常見問題
目前市場對「2026 Opendoor Pickleball World Championships: To Reach Quarterfinals (Mixed Doubles)」的共識是什麼？
截至最新更新，Ben Johns / Anna Leigh Waters 以 93.7% 的獲勝機率領跑，其次是 Parris Todd / Andrei Daescu（81.5%），以及 Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud（43.5%）。該市場總成交量已達 $1.6K，顯示出充足的流動性與高交易參與度。
AI 公允價值與即時市場交易價值有何不同？
即時市場交易價值反映的是公眾情緒、訂單簿動能與投機資金。我們的 AI 公允價值則由量化模型獨立計算，剔除情緒炒作、專注底層數據。兩者出現顯著背離時即形成 EV 差，提示市場對某個結果可能存在錯誤定價。
市場共識是否對某個結果反應過度？
是的——資料顯示市場對 Kate Fahey / Federico Staksrud 存在明顯的反應過度。人群把其即時交易價值推高至 43.5%，但我們的公允價值評估認為其真實機率僅為 1%，形成 -42.5% 的負 EV 差，表明該合約被高估。