Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

根据「Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，June 30, 2027 以压倒性的 10.5% 获胜概率主导市场；December 31 以 1.9% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $968K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• June 30, 2027 (10.5%)：June 30, 2027 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 11¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1.2K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• December 31 (1.9%)：作为最可行的替代选项，December 31 保持着 1.9% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 2¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk.

The boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.

Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:

- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain

- Assessed Russian Advances

Shading under the following layers will not qualify:

- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas

- Claimed Russian Territory

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 June 30, 2027 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 10.5% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 22.6%——形成可观的 +12.1% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 December 31（EV 差：+2.1%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。