Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
核心摘要
根据「Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 以压倒性的 11.5% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $592.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? (11.5%)：Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 11¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $592.5K 的成交量。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | 11.5% | $592.5K | 11¢ | 89¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最被高估的结果：Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 当前交易价为 11.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 9.2%，形成 -2.2% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | 11.5% | 9.2% | -2.2% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 28, 2026
- 07:26 PM0X0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2b$120.00
Bought 1000 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.12
- 07:26 PM0X0x91784d82fbe4543459ee85fc9809be185d70a2b$83.66
Bought 760.53 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.11
- 07:25 PMNEneutralwave23$4.72
Sold 5.3 No for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.89
- 07:24 PMOOoopslostmoney$11.31
Bought 102.803739 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.11
- 07:24 PMNEneutralwave23$4.72
Bought 5.302009 No for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.89
- 07:12 PMNONoSteinNoGate$26.74
Bought 243.09 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.11
- 07:12 PMNONoSteinNoGate$22.71
Bought 227.1 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
- 05:48 PM——$8.60
Bought 86 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
- 05:48 PMLOlongdated-poli$3.00
Sold 30 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
- 05:48 PM——$10.40
Bought 104 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
- 05:48 PM0X0x888888888$365.58
Bought 406.199312 No for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.9
- 05:48 PM0X0x8Df92602EC9c454E8099D9dc4A3F0d21DaA0468C-1766855317883$132.79
Sold 1327.9 Yes for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? at 0.1
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 以 11.5% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $592.5K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？
是的——数据显示市场对 Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 11.5%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 9.2%，形成 -2.2% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。