Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

根据「Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31, 2028 以压倒性的 7,850% 获胜概率主导市场；December 31, 2027 以 4,250% 位居第二，December 31, 2026 以 650% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $74.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31, 2028 (7,850%)：December 31, 2028 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 7,850¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $12.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• December 31, 2027 (4,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，December 31, 2027 保持着 4,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,250¢。
• December 31, 2026 (650%)：以 650% 的概率位列第三，市场对 December 31, 2026 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI.

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.