Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
核心摘要
根据「Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? 以压倒性的 40.5% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $91.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? (40.5%)：Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 41¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $98.4K 的成交量。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | 40.5% | $98.4K | 41¢ | 60¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Clavicular, otherwise known as Braden Peters, is photographed or videotaped wearing a Yarmulke/Kippah at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最被高估的结果：Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? 当前交易价为 40.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 38.4%，形成 -2.2% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? | 40.5% | 38.4% | -2.2% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Nov 4, 2026
- 08:09 AMWAWarriorH$22.62
Sold 58 Yes for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.39
- 07:11 AMDEDegenerateJanet$51.72
Bought 86.2 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.6
- 07:09 AMDEDegenerateJanet$192.49
Bought 337.71 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.57
- 07:09 AMDEDegenerateJanet$321.41
Bought 573.95 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.56
- 07:09 AMISIstaroth$114.00
Bought 200 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.57
- 07:06 AMHGhgoui$21.68
Sold 40.9 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.53
- 03:06 AM0X0x668CbA566b734a08fe8c81708537a534f4144d41-1764956067339$5.00
Bought 9.09091 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.55
- 01:37 AMWAWarriorH$164.30
Sold 310 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.53
- 01:16 AMDEDegenerateJanet$54.00
Bought 100 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.54
- 12:37 AMHEHE110W0R1D$52.00
Sold 100 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.52
- 12:37 AMISIstaroth$9.04
Sold 21.02 Yes for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.43
- 12:37 AMGAgavinfunda$72.28
Sold 139 No for Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? at 0.52
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? 以 40.5% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $91.3K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？
是的——数据显示市场对 Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 40.5%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 38.4%，形成 -2.2% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。