Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
核心摘要
根据「Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，No 以压倒性的 8,650% 获胜概率主导市场；Yes 以 1,350% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $99.5K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- No (8,650%)：No 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,650¢，显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Yes (1,350%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Yes 保持着 1,350% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,350¢。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | No | 8650.0% | — | 8650¢ | -8550¢ |
| 2 | Yes | 1350.0% | — | 1350¢ | -1250¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 7, 2026
- 02:05 PMB4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.$5.20
Bought 40 Yes for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.13
Sep 6, 2026
- 11:39 AM757542242$7.65
Bought 8.693175 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
- 11:39 AMPRprov123$19.96
Bought 22.681816 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
Sep 4, 2026
- 08:36 AMKOKongKessler$1.43
Sold 1.64 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.87
Aug 27, 2026
- 12:39 PM——$7.66
Sold 8.8 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.87
- 02:11 AMKOKongKessler$1.51
Bought 1.64 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.92
Aug 26, 2026
- 06:56 PMPOPoltergeist94$16.29
Bought 18.303363 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.89
- 06:56 PMPAPaoul1992$12.28
Bought 13.797745 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.89
- 06:56 PMM.M.elena678$14.56
Bought 16.546509 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
- 06:56 PMERernestosparalesto$4.75
Bought 5.397725 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
- 05:02 PM——$7.75
Bought 8.806816 No for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.88
- 02:04 PMB4b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.$1.00
Bought 10 Yes for Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027? at 0.1
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常见问题
当前市场对「Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，No 以 8,650% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Yes（1,350%）。该市场总成交量已达 $99.5K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。