Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?

根据「Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Saudi Arabia 以压倒性的 1,650% 获胜概率主导市场；China 以 1,000% 位居第二，Russia 以 850% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $86K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Saudi Arabia (1,650%)：Saudi Arabia 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 1,650¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $13.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• China (1,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，China 保持着 1,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,000¢。
• Russia (850%)：以 850% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Russia 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Iran (565%)、Anthropic (445%)，以及 Meta (380%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Israel 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify.

For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual.

A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify.

Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI.

Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.