Who will be arrested before 2027?

根据「Who will be arrested before 2027?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，John Brennan 以压倒性的 2,650% 获胜概率主导市场；Mahmoud Khalil 以 1,700% 位居第二，Susan Rice 以 1,200% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $435.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• John Brennan (2,650%)：John Brennan 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 2,650¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $25.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Mahmoud Khalil (1,700%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Mahmoud Khalil 保持着 1,700% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1,700¢。
• Susan Rice (1,200%)：以 1,200% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Susan Rice 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 James Clapper (1,150%)、Lee Jun-seok (1,095%)，以及 Brandon Johnson (950%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Anthony Fauci 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:

* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)

* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant

* Being formally booked or processed following detention

* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station

* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney

* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention

* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed

* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)

* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest

* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.