Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

根据「Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，J.D. Vance 以压倒性的 8,995% 获胜概率主导市场；Ted Cruz 以 8,750% 位居第二，Pete Buttigieg 以 8,550% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $68.2K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• J.D. Vance (8,995%)：J.D. Vance 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 8,995¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1.6K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Ted Cruz (8,750%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Ted Cruz 保持着 8,750% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,750¢。
• Pete Buttigieg (8,550%)：以 8,550% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Pete Buttigieg 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Gavin Newsom (8,200%)、Ron DeSantis (8,000%)，以及 Andy Beshear (7,750%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Rahm Emanuel 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.