Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

根据「Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Mike Lee 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；Catherine Cortez Masto 以 5,000% 位居第二，Mark Warner 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Mike Lee (5,000%)：Mike Lee 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Catherine Cortez Masto (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Catherine Cortez Masto 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
• Mark Warner (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Mark Warner 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Jerry Moran (5,000%)、Kirsten Gillibrand (5,000%)，以及 Lisa Blunt Rochester (5,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Ruben Gallego 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088

The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.

This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.

Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.

This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).