Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

根据「Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Likud 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；Shas 以 5,000% 位居第二，United Torah Judaism 以 5,000% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Likud (5,000%)：Likud 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Shas (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Shas 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。
• United Torah Judaism (5,000%)：以 5,000% 的概率位列第三，市场对 United Torah Judaism 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 RZP-Zehut (5,000%)、Otzma Yehudit (5,000%)，以及 Together (5,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Blue and White 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.