Venezuela leader end of 2026?

根据「Venezuela leader end of 2026?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Nicolás Maduro 以压倒性的 79.4% 获胜概率主导市场；Delcy Rodríguez 以 15.5% 位居第二，María Corina Machado 以 5.5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $91.2M，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Nicolás Maduro (79.4%)：Nicolás Maduro 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 79¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $1.9M 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Delcy Rodríguez (15.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Delcy Rodríguez 保持着 15.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 16¢。
• María Corina Machado (5.5%)：以 5.5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 María Corina Machado 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Edmundo González (0.7%)、Jorge Rodríguez (0.5%)，以及 No Head of State (0.5%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Diosdado Cabello Rondón 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.

If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).

In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.

If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Nicolás Maduro 当前交易价为 79.4%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 36.4%，形成 -43% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Evan Pettus 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.2% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 38.4%——形成可观的 +38.2% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Dan Caine（EV 差：+33.2%）以及 Pete Hegseth（EV 差：+28.4%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。