US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

根据「US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 4.5% 获胜概率主导市场；September 30 以 0.8% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $29.2M，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (4.5%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.2M 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• September 30 (0.8%)：作为最可行的替代选项，September 30 保持着 0.8% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 1¢。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.

Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.

A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：December 31 当前交易价为 4.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 1%，形成 -3.5% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 September 30 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 0.8% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 3.6%——形成可观的 +2.8% EV 差。