US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

根据「US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，November 5 以压倒性的 9,400% 获胜概率主导市场；November 6 以 8,900% 位居第二，November 8 以 7,200% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $1.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• November 5 (9,400%)：November 5 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 9,400¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $958 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• November 6 (8,900%)：作为最可行的替代选项，November 6 保持着 8,900% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 8,900¢。
• November 8 (7,200%)：以 7,200% 的概率位列第三，市场对 November 8 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 November 15 (5,400%)、November 30 (4,400%)，以及 December 31 (4,000%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 November 15 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:

Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;

Surface-to-air missile strikes;

Small-arms fire;

Ground incursions;

Cyber operations;

Naval gunfire and artillery fire;

Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);

Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;

Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Unless a qualifying military action has already been established by a consensus of information available from the resolution sources, this market will remain open until 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date. If multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a potentially-qualifying incident at 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date following the specified date, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.