US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

根据「US imports Russian diesel by October 31?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Yes 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；No 以 5,000% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Yes (5,000%)：Yes 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• No (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，No 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。

On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin.

Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify.

To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.