US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?

根据「US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 6,050% 获胜概率主导市场；October 31 以 3,250% 位居第二，September 30 以 1,350% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $121.3K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (6,050%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,050¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $24.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• October 31 (3,250%)：作为最可行的替代选项，October 31 保持着 3,250% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,250¢。
• September 30 (1,350%)：以 1,350% 的概率位列第三，市场对 September 30 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Canada to lower US tariffs on Canada is announced by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A diplomatic agreement to lower US tariffs on Canada refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that commits or obligates the United States to lower any tariffs on Canada, or includes the lowering of US tariffs on Canada as part of its stated terms.

Any reduction, revocation, or suspension of US tariffs on Canada, or the cancelled or suspended implementation of previously announced tariffs not yet effective, mutually announced as part of a diplomatic agreement, will qualify as lowering tariffs.

All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement.

Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement.

Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries or whether the agreement qualifies, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 14 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, the announcements will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Canada and a consensus of credible reporting.