UEFA Europa League: Team to Finish 9th-24th in League Phase
核心摘要
根据「UEFA Europa League: Team to Finish 9th-24th in League Phase」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前，Milan 以压倒性的 83% 获胜概率主导市场；Real Sociedad 以 80.5% 位居第二，Crystal Palace 以 78% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $85.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：
🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者
- Milan (83%)：Milan 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 83¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $306 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者
- Real Sociedad (80.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Real Sociedad 保持着 80.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 81¢。
- Crystal Palace (78%)：以 78% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Crystal Palace 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）
在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：
- 替代选项：包括 AZ (77.5%)、Dinamo Zagreb (77%)，以及 NEC (76.5%)。
- 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 TSG Hoffenheim 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes（成本） | 买入 No（成本） |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milan | 83.0% | $306 | 83¢ | 17¢ |
| 2 | Real Sociedad | 80.5% | $2.1K | 81¢ | 20¢ |
| 3 | Crystal Palace | 78.0% | $1.9K | 78¢ | 22¢ |
| 4 | AZ | 77.5% | $339 | 78¢ | 23¢ |
| 5 | Dinamo Zagreb | 77.0% | $2.5K | 77¢ | 23¢ |
| 6 | NEC | 76.5% | $2.7K | 77¢ | 24¢ |
| 7 | TSG Hoffenheim | 72.5% | $1.5K | 73¢ | 28¢ |
| 8 | Red Bull Salzburg | 72.0% | $2.6K | 72¢ | 28¢ |
| 9 | Levski Sofia | 71.0% | $2.5K | 71¢ | 29¢ |
| 10 | Anderlecht | 70.5% | $1.9K | 71¢ | 30¢ |
| 11 | Rennes | 68.5% | $435 | 69¢ | 32¢ |
| 12 | Besiktas | 68.5% | $456 | 69¢ | 32¢ |
| 13 | Celta Vigo | 66.5% | $2.0K | 67¢ | 34¢ |
| 14 | Sunderland | 66.0% | $1.4K | 66¢ | 34¢ |
| 15 | Marseille | 62.5% | $1.9K | 63¢ | 38¢ |
| 16 | Lyon | 56.5% | $3.0K | 56¢ | 44¢ |
| 17 | Omonia | 56.5% | $3.3K | 56¢ | 44¢ |
| 18 | OFI | 55.0% | $3.4K | 55¢ | 45¢ |
| 19 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 52.1% | $685 | 52¢ | 48¢ |
| 20 | Sparta Prague | 46.5% | $809 | 47¢ | 54¢ |
| 21 | Sturm Graz | 38.5% | $1.4K | 39¢ | 62¢ |
| 22 | Celtic | 37.5% | $2.9K | 38¢ | 63¢ |
| 23 | Torreense | 35.0% | $5.7K | 35¢ | 65¢ |
| 24 | Olympiacos | 32.5% | $10.9K | 33¢ | 68¢ |
| 25 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 32.5% | $1.6K | 33¢ | 68¢ |
| 26 | Celje | 27.0% | $211 | 27¢ | 73¢ |
| 27 | Bayer Leverkusen | 24.0% | $3.6K | 24¢ | 76¢ |
| 28 | Ferencvaros | 22.5% | $2.4K | 23¢ | 78¢ |
| 29 | Viktoria Plzen | 18.5% | $177 | 19¢ | 82¢ |
| 30 | Lech Poznan | 17.0% | $4.3K | 17¢ | 83¢ |
| 31 | Juventus | 11.5% | $1.9K | 12¢ | 89¢ |
| 32 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 8.5% | $2.7K | 9¢ | 92¢ |
| 33 | Bournemouth | 5.0% | $5.8K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 4.0% | $563 | 4¢ | 96¢ |
| 35 | Benfica | 3.8% | $3.7K | 4¢ | 96¢ |
| 36 | Lillestrom | 1.2% | $2.3K | 1¢ | 99¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club finishes 9th through 24th, inclusive, in the final league phase standings of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only matches played in the league phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League will be considered. Qualifying rounds, the knockout phase play-offs, and all knockout rounds will not be considered.
If two or more clubs are level on points, the ranking will be determined according to UEFA's official tie-breaker criteria as published for the competition.
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to finish 9th through 24th in the league phase (e.g. they clinch a place in the top 8, or they are mathematically unable to finish above 25th), this market will immediately resolve to "No".
If a listed club does not participate in, withdraws from, or is expelled from the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase, its market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase is canceled or is not completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：
- 最被高估的结果：Hapoel Be'er Sheva 当前交易价为 52.2%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 9.5%，形成 -42.6% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
- 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Ferencvaros 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 22.5% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 54.4%——形成可观的 +31.9% EV 差。
- 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Jagiellonia Bialystok（EV 差：+20.9%）以及 Juventus（EV 差：+18.5%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milan | 83.0% | 68.9% | -14.1% |
| Real Sociedad | 80.5% | 67.4% | -13.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 78.0% | 64.6% | -13.4% |
| AZ | 77.5% | 77.7% | +0.2% |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 77.0% | 46.8% | -30.2% |
| NEC | 76.5% | 72.4% | -4.1% |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 72.5% | 73.9% | +1.4% |
| Red Bull Salzburg | 72.0% | 62.0% | -10.0% |
| Levski Sofia | 71.0% | 46.1% | -24.9% |
| Anderlecht | 70.5% | 67.2% | -3.3% |
| Rennes | 68.5% | 77.7% | +9.2% |
| Besiktas | 68.5% | 62.7% | -5.8% |
| Celta Vigo | 66.5% | 64.7% | -1.8% |
| Sunderland | 66.0% | 41.5% | -24.5% |
| Marseille | 62.5% | 62.1% | -0.4% |
| Lyon | 56.5% | 55.6% | -0.9% |
| Omonia | 56.5% | 53.6% | -2.9% |
| OFI | 55.0% | 44.8% | -10.2% |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 52.1% | 9.5% | -42.6% |
| Sparta Prague | 46.5% | 39.4% | -7.1% |
| Sturm Graz | 38.5% | 38.3% | -0.2% |
| Celtic | 37.5% | 26.5% | -11.0% |
| Torreense | 35.0% | 35.1% | +0.1% |
| Olympiacos | 32.5% | 45.8% | +13.3% |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 32.5% | 31.3% | -1.2% |
| Celje | 27.0% | 27.7% | +0.7% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 24.0% | 14.2% | -9.8% |
| FerencvarosBest EV | 22.5% | 54.4% | +31.9% |
| Viktoria Plzen | 18.5% | 1.0% | -17.5% |
| Lech Poznan | 17.0% | 32.2% | +15.2% |
| Juventus | 11.5% | 30.0% | +18.5% |
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | 8.5% | 29.4% | +20.9% |
| Bournemouth | 5.0% | 1.0% | -4.0% |
| Ararat-Armenia | 4.0% | 4.5% | +0.4% |
| Benfica | 3.8% | 1.0% | -2.8% |
| Lillestrom | 1.2% | 1.0% | -0.2% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Nov 9, 2026
- 07:21 PMMOmonkey-brains$31.74
Bought 46 No for Will Olympiacos finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.69
- 07:21 PMCIcigarettes$272.00
Bought 400 No for Will Olympiacos finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.68
- 07:21 PMMOmonkey-brains$2.72
Bought 4 No for Will Olympiacos finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.68
- 07:17 PMCRcrescendolls$37.95
Bought 70.27 Yes for Will Lyon finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.54
- 04:50 PMSOsongbird123$0.93
Sold 1 No for Will Bournemouth finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.93
- 04:37 PMFIFihdrzgdd$62.81
Sold 93.75 No for Will Olympiacos finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.67
- 06:01 AMCLclosethething12$0.64
Sold 8 Yes for Will Jagiellonia Bialystok finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.08
- 12:40 AMTEtestewqrwr$2.40
Sold 30 Yes for Will Jagiellonia Bialystok finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.08
Nov 8, 2026
- 08:33 PMOGogsliwa$5.00
Bought 6.849314 Yes for Will Levski Sofia finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.73
- 05:48 PMVEverybadtrader$20.35
Sold 55 No for Will Marseille finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.37
- 05:47 PMVEverybadtrader$11.55
Sold 55 No for Will Crystal Palace finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.21
- 05:47 PMVEverybadtrader$17.41
Sold 56.17 Yes for Will Union Saint-Gilloise finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase? at 0.31
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「UEFA Europa League: Team to Finish 9th-24th in League Phase」的共识是什么？
截至最新更新，Milan 以 83% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Real Sociedad（80.5%），以及 Crystal Palace（78%）。该市场总成交量已达 $85.9K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？
最新一轮测算显示，Ferencvaros 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 22.5%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 54.4%——形成 +31.9% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。
市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？
是的——数据显示市场对 Hapoel Be'er Sheva 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 52.2%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 9.5%，形成 -42.6% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。
长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？
当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。Jagiellonia Bialystok 拥有 +20.9% 的正 EV 差，Juventus 则为 +18.5%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。