UEFA Champions League: Top Scorer 2026-27

$86.9K Vol
2027年6月20日
Active
概率趋势
Kylian Mbappé 22.5%
Raphinha 15.0%
Erling Haaland 14.5%
Harry Kane 13.5%
Matheus Cunha 13.5%

核心摘要

根据「UEFA Champions League: Top Scorer 2026-27」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Kylian Mbappé 以压倒性的 21.5% 获胜概率主导市场；Raphinha 以 15% 位居第二，Erling Haaland 以 14.5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $86.9K，反映出市场的高度关注。

竞争梯队拆解

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

  • Kylian Mbappé (21.5%)：Kylian Mbappé 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 22¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $12.1K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

  • Raphinha (15%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Raphinha 保持着 15% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 15¢。
  • Erling Haaland (14.5%)：以 14.5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Erling Haaland 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 49%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

  • 替代选项：包括 Odsonne Édouard (14.3%)、Serhou Guirassy (13.9%)，以及 Harry Kane (13.5%)。
  • 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Ricardo Pepi 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

完整订单簿与定价面板

下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解：

排名预测结果获胜概率成交量买入 Yes（成本）买入 No（成本）
1Kylian Mbappé21.5%$12.1K22¢79¢
2Raphinha15.0%$21.5K15¢85¢
3Erling Haaland14.5%$7.1K14¢86¢
4Odsonne Édouard14.3%$44614¢86¢
5Serhou Guirassy13.9%$99514¢86¢
6Harry Kane13.5%$5.8K14¢87¢
7Ricardo Pepi11.8%$43312¢88¢
8Matheus Cunha10.8%$39611¢89¢
9Ousmane Dembélé6.8%$3.5K7¢93¢
10Antoine Semenyo5.8%$5206¢94¢
11Lamine Yamal5.1%$1.6K5¢95¢
12Julián Álvarez4.9%$5215¢95¢
13Victor Osimhen3.6%$6214¢96¢
14Alexander Isak3.3%$6703¢97¢
15Bukayo Saka3.1%$4003¢97¢
16Veljko Simic3.1%$4453¢97¢
17Luis Javier Suárez2.8%$8643¢97¢
18Michael Olise2.7%$2.0K3¢97¢
19Anastasios Douvikas2.5%$3293¢98¢
20Santiago Castro2.4%$3182¢98¢
21Luka Jovic2.4%$2752¢98¢
22Ferran Torres2.4%$1.9K2¢98¢
23Ermedin Demirovic2.3%$1.5K2¢98¢
24Veton Berisha2.1%$3832¢98¢
25Yan Diomande2.0%$6582¢98¢
26Cody Gakpo1.8%$6602¢98¢
27Benjamin Šeško1.4%$5201¢99¢
28Deniz Undav1.3%$5621¢99¢
29Khvicha Kvaratskhelia1.1%$1.4K1¢99¢
30Alexander Sørloth1.0%$7211¢99¢
31Bradley Barcola0.9%$1.3K1¢99¢
32Vinícius Júnior0.6%$1.0K1¢99¢
33Kai Havertz0.5%$4491¢99¢
34Mason Greenwood0.4%$6520¢100¢
35Karim Adeyemi0.4%$4380¢100¢
36Viktor Gyökeres0.3%$3560¢100¢
37Ismael Saibari0.3%$6050¢100¢
38Lautaro Martínez0.2%$5670¢100¢
39Ola Brynhildsen0.1%$2970¢100¢
40Nicolas Jackson0.1%$2880¢100¢
41Alejandro Garnacho0.1%$2710¢100¢
42Hugo Ekitike0.1%$2820¢100¢
43Marcus Thuram0.1%$3960¢100¢
44Rasmus Højlund0.1%$2390¢100¢
45Lorenzo Lucca0.1%$2380¢100¢
46Paulo Dybala0.1%$4360¢100¢
47Moise Kean0.1%$2270¢100¢
48Georges Mikautadze0.1%$2560¢100¢
49Gerard Moreno0.1%$2760¢100¢
50Cucho Hernández0.1%$2350¢100¢
51Antony0.1%$3840¢100¢
52Luis Díaz0.1%$3700¢100¢
53Maximilian Beier0.1%$2710¢100¢
54Christopher Nkunku0.1%$2070¢100¢
55Johan Bakayoko0.1%$2710¢100¢
56Florian Thauvin0.1%$2970¢100¢
57Olivier Giroud0.1%$2500¢100¢
58Ayase Ueda0.1%$2900¢100¢
59Alassane Pléa0.1%$2700¢100¢
60Anis Hadj Moussa0.1%$4230¢100¢
61Reiss Nelson0.1%$2700¢100¢
62Samu Aghehowa0.1%$2570¢100¢
63André Silva0.1%$2620¢100¢
64Fotis Ioannidis0.1%$4000¢100¢
65Nicolo Tresoldi0.1%$8520¢100¢
66Carlos Forbs0.1%$2700¢100¢
67Tomás Chorý0.1%$2760¢100¢
68Mojmír Chytil0.1%$2300¢100¢
69Rafael Leão0.1%$2590¢100¢
70Lassina Traoré0.1%$2690¢100¢
71Kauã Elias0.1%$2720¢100¢
72Romelu Lukaku0.1%$4400¢100¢
73Andreas Helmersen0.1%$2420¢100¢
74Andraz Sporar0.1%$3040¢100¢
75Mykola Kukharevych0.1%$1940¢100¢
76Barnabás Varga0.1%$2740¢100¢
77Sasa Kalajdzic0.1%$1930¢100¢
78Samuel Adeniran0.1%$2240¢100¢
79Erik Botheim0.1%$1930¢100¢
80Christian Nwachukwu0.1%$2110¢100¢

裁决规则

This market will resolve to the player who scores the most goals through all main tournament rounds of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League competition.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by UEFA. If multiple leaders are announced, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026-27 Champions League competition is cancelled, postponed after June 19, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/statistics/players/goals/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AI 估值分析：发现市场错误定价与 EV 差

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

  • 最被高估的结果：Odsonne Édouard 当前交易价为 14.3%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 0.1%，形成 -14.2% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
  • 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Lamine Yamal 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 5.1% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 67.4%——形成可观的 +62.3% EV 差。
  • 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 Ousmane Dembélé（EV 差：+48.7%）以及 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia（EV 差：+43.9%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。
MarketTrade ValueFair ValueEV Gap
Kylian Mbappé21.5%18.4%-3.1%
Raphinha15.0%9.6%-5.4%
Erling Haaland14.5%16.0%+1.5%
Odsonne Édouard14.3%0.1%-14.2%
Serhou Guirassy13.9%17.3%+3.5%
Harry Kane13.5%23.1%+9.6%
Ricardo Pepi11.8%0.1%-11.6%
Matheus Cunha10.8%0.1%-10.7%
Ousmane Dembélé6.8%55.4%+48.7%
Antoine Semenyo5.8%19.9%+14.2%
Lamine YamalBest EV5.1%67.4%+62.3%
Julián Álvarez4.9%16.7%+11.8%
Victor Osimhen3.6%24.3%+20.7%
Alexander Isak3.3%43.0%+39.7%
Bukayo Saka3.1%10.2%+7.0%
Veljko Simic3.1%12.8%+9.7%
Luis Javier Suárez2.8%26.5%+23.7%
Michael Olise2.7%2.3%-0.4%
Anastasios Douvikas2.5%16.0%+13.5%
Santiago Castro2.4%15.3%+12.9%
Luka Jovic2.4%16.8%+14.5%
Ferran Torres2.4%2.2%-0.2%
Ermedin Demirovic2.3%24.7%+22.5%
Veton Berisha2.1%11.5%+9.4%
Yan Diomande2.0%0.4%-1.6%
Cody Gakpo1.8%0.3%-1.5%
Benjamin Šeško1.4%22.6%+21.2%
Deniz Undav1.3%13.9%+12.6%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia1.1%44.9%+43.9%
Alexander Sørloth1.0%16.7%+15.7%
Bradley Barcola0.9%4.9%+4.1%
Vinícius Júnior0.6%26.1%+25.5%
Kai Havertz0.5%0.5%-0.0%
Mason Greenwood0.4%0.4%-0.0%
Karim Adeyemi0.4%0.4%+0.0%
Viktor Gyökeres0.3%0.1%-0.2%
Ismael Saibari0.3%0.2%-0.0%
Lautaro Martínez0.2%0.2%+0.0%
Ola Brynhildsen0.1%0.1%0.0%
Nicolas Jackson0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Alejandro Garnacho0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Hugo Ekitike0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Marcus Thuram0.1%0.2%+0.2%
Rasmus Højlund0.1%0.2%+0.1%
Lorenzo Lucca0.1%0.2%+0.1%
Paulo Dybala0.1%12.1%+12.0%
Moise Kean0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Georges Mikautadze0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Gerard Moreno0.1%8.6%+8.6%
Cucho Hernández0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Antony0.1%9.2%+9.1%
Luis Díaz0.1%0.3%+0.3%
Maximilian Beier0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Christopher Nkunku0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Johan Bakayoko0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Florian Thauvin0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Olivier Giroud0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Ayase Ueda0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Alassane Pléa0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Anis Hadj Moussa0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Reiss Nelson0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Samu Aghehowa0.1%0.1%+0.1%
André Silva0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Fotis Ioannidis0.1%10.6%+10.5%
Nicolo Tresoldi0.1%16.1%+16.1%
Carlos Forbs0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Tomás Chorý0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Mojmír Chytil0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Rafael Leão0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Lassina Traoré0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Kauã Elias0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Romelu Lukaku0.1%11.4%+11.3%
Andreas Helmersen0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Andraz Sporar0.1%0.1%+0.1%
Mykola Kukharevych0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Barnabás Varga0.1%11.3%+11.3%
Sasa Kalajdzic0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Samuel Adeniran0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Erik Botheim0.1%1.0%+0.9%
Christian Nwachukwu0.1%5.8%+5.8%

交易动态

以下是该事件的交易动态。

Nov 4, 2026

  • 08:16 AM
    STstuv
    $0.15

    Sold 0.74 Yes for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.2

  • 08:11 AM
    MAmaomao228
    $16.39

    Bought 20.746833 No for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.79

  • 08:11 AM
    0X0x73f426b0CE8d83f5A68f4237212E76FA4f41a24b-1783543323805
    $19.85

    Bought 25.45 No for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.78

  • 04:59 AM
    LEleegunner
    $18.06

    Sold 21 No for Will Raphinha score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.86

  • 03:44 AM
    ABABC12345654321
    $1.65

    Bought 7.173914 Yes for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.23

  • 03:42 AM
    ABABC12345654321
    $1.79

    Bought 7.782609 Yes for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.23

  • 02:20 AM
    0X0x2F5057A272D5D2DAeCc622055037c21879d163a7-1784668294400
    $8.33

    Sold 41.66 Yes for Will Kylian Mbappé score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0.2

  • 02:04 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 86.02 Yes for Will Lautaro Martínez score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

  • 02:04 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 7.59 Yes for Will Ola Brynhildsen score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

  • 01:55 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 86.02 Yes for Will Ismael Saibari score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

  • 01:55 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 85.62 Yes for Will Kai Havertz score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

  • 01:55 AM
    LULucerys
    $0.00

    Sold 86.02 Yes for Will Viktor Gyökeres score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League? at 0

正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包

A51
0xa5ef…2966
事件盈亏
+$116,960.36
成交量
$111,309.86
持仓数
NoNoNo+77
HJ2
Hjklm
事件盈亏
+$412.76
成交量
$38,249.62
持仓数
NoYesYes+76
NO3
northstock
事件盈亏
+$111.41
成交量
$14,739.84
持仓数
NoNoYes+73
844
843Cc4C8e6dc29A4581126660814B0a6eF6A0734.
事件盈亏
+$82.61
成交量
$7,748.14
持仓数
YesYesYes+50
LE5
leegunner
事件盈亏
+$141.38
成交量
$5,665.82
持仓数
NoNoYes+13
GI6
GingerMcKenna
事件盈亏
+$67.85
成交量
$5,639.76
持仓数
YesYesYes+53
CY7
Cyberflems
事件盈亏
-$36.46
成交量
$5,581.89
持仓数
YesYesYes+3
BA8
balthazar
事件盈亏
+$16.39
成交量
$5,280.48
持仓数
YesYesYes+65

常见问题

当前市场对「UEFA Champions League: Top Scorer 2026-27」的共识是什么？

截至最新更新，Kylian Mbappé 以 21.5% 的获胜概率领跑，其次是 Raphinha（15%），以及 Erling Haaland（14.5%）。该市场总成交量已达 $86.9K，显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。

AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同？

实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算，剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差，提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。

当前哪个结果的期望值（EV）最高？

最新一轮测算显示，Lamine Yamal 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 5.1%，而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 67.4%——形成 +62.3% 的期望值差，是该市场中最具价值的标的。

市场共识是否对某个结果反应过度？

是的——数据显示市场对 Odsonne Édouard 存在明显的反应过度。人群把其实时交易价值推高至 14.3%，但我们的公允价值评估认为其真实概率仅为 0.1%，形成 -14.2% 的负 EV 差，表明该合约被高估。

长尾数据中是否藏有高价值的黑马选项？

当然有。除了头部结果之外，我们的模型在排名靠后的选项中发现了被低估的潜力。Ousmane Dembélé 拥有 +48.7% 的正 EV 差，Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 则为 +43.9%。尽管量化层面更有支撑，这些合约仍被实时订单簿低估。

开始交易