
Top Spotify Song 2026
核心摘要
根据「Top Spotify Song 2026」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,End of Beginning – Djo 以压倒性的 6,210% 获胜概率主导市场;Babydoll – Dominic Fike 以 3,335% 位居第二,Swim – BTS 以 230% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $124.7K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- End of Beginning – Djo (6,210%):End of Beginning – Djo 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 6,210¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $26.3K 的成交量。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Babydoll – Dominic Fike (3,335%):作为最可行的替代选项,Babydoll – Dominic Fike 保持着 3,335% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,335¢。
- Swim – BTS (230%):以 230% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Swim – BTS 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
🥉 第三梯队:长尾选项(合计约 0%)
在前三名之外,还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低,但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲:
- 替代选项:包括 Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj (155%)、Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy (70%),以及 hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande (55%)。
- 投机成交:尽管统计概率偏低,像 Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | End of Beginning – Djo | 6210.0% | $26.3K | 6210¢ | -6110¢ |
| 2 | Babydoll – Dominic Fike | 3335.0% | $24.5K | 3335¢ | -3235¢ |
| 3 | Swim – BTS | 230.0% | $43.4K | 230¢ | -130¢ |
| 4 | Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj | 155.0% | $15.2K | 155¢ | -55¢ |
| 5 | Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy | 70.0% | $3.4K | 70¢ | 30¢ |
| 6 | hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande | 55.0% | $1.8K | 55¢ | 45¢ |
| 7 | Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo | 40.0% | $2.1K | 40¢ | 60¢ |
| 8 | Risk It All – Bruno Mars | 30.0% | $2.4K | 30¢ | 70¢ |
| 9 | Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars | 5.0% | $1.2K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 10 | APT. – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars | 5.0% | $620 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 11 | Stateside – PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson | 5.0% | $834 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 12 | Man I Need – Olivia Dean | 5.0% | $1.0K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 13 | Billie Jean – Michael Jackson | 5.0% | $1.1K | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| 14 | stupid song – Olivia Rodrigo | 5.0% | $688 | 5¢ | 95¢ |
裁决规则
Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed song (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify song globally for 2026.
This market will resolve according to the name of the song listed by Spotify as the top song of 2026.
If multiple songs tie for top song for 2026, this market will resolve according to the song whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If Spotify does not release who their top song for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped.
Note: This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Sep 8, 2026
- 04:11 AMMAmarksman$27.03
Bought 42.90626 Yes for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.63
- 03:08 AMMIMiaomi666$1.39
Sold 2.1 No for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.66
- 02:44 AM0X0x80e9F3b8e34027A7f4C7517d7E3d56A5A5B438A8-1728423274773$7.39
Bought 19.9729 No for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.37
- 02:24 AMTOtomonyc$0.37
Sold 0.6 Yes for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.61
- 02:23 AMTOtomonyc$0.08
Sold 0.26 Yes for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.32
- 01:25 AMENeNakeVets$1.00
Sold 100 Yes for Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026? at 0.01
Sep 7, 2026
- 09:09 PMSHshinramyvn$45.75
Sold 75 Yes for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.61
- 09:09 PMPMpmmmmmmmmmmmmmm$8.00
Bought 20.514139 No for Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? at 0.39
- 05:19 PMDAdarkaurora$6.00
Sold 20 Yes for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.3
- 05:18 PMLIlihood91211$2.48
Sold 8.28 Yes for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.3
- 05:15 PMCHchocolate123$12.94
Sold 43.14 Yes for Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? at 0.3
- 05:15 PMCHchocolate123$1.15
Sold 114.69 Yes for Will Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj be the top song for 2026? at 0.01
常见问题
当前市场对「Top Spotify Song 2026」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,End of Beginning – Djo 以 6,210% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Babydoll – Dominic Fike(3,335%),以及 Swim – BTS(230%)。该市场总成交量已达 $124.7K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
