TIME Person of the Year 2026

根据「TIME Person of the Year 2026」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Zohran Mamdani 以压倒性的 27.5% 获胜概率主导市场；Mark Carney 以 16.5% 位居第二，Ali Khamenei 以 10.5% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $76.7K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Zohran Mamdani (27.5%)：Zohran Mamdani 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 28¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $24.9K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Mark Carney (16.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Mark Carney 保持着 16.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 17¢。
• Ali Khamenei (10.5%)：以 10.5% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Ali Khamenei 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 45.5%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Donald Trump (10.5%)、Pope Leo XIV (9%)，以及 Christina Koch (7%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Victor Glover 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year.

Additionally, the following rules apply:

If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year.

If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person.

If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous.

If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017.

If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：Mark Carney 当前交易价为 16.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 8.2%，形成 -8.3% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。
• 最佳价值标的（最高 EV）：我们的模型将 Shehbaz Sharif 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 4.3% 的交易概率，而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 43.8%——形成可观的 +39.6% EV 差。
• 被忽视的黑马：其他值得注意的偏离包括 ChatGPT（EV 差：+28%）以及 Marco Rubio（EV 差：+20.2%）。尽管我们的预测模型给予更强的统计支撑，这些长尾机会仍被实时订单簿大幅低估。