Texas Senate and Governor Combo

根据「Texas Senate and Governor Combo」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 以压倒性的 4,200% 获胜概率主导市场；Reps sweep 以 3,400% 位居第二，Dems sweep 以 2,350% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 $4.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate (4,200%)：Reps win Gov, Dems win Senate 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,200¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $2.3K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• Reps sweep (3,400%)：作为最可行的替代选项，Reps sweep 保持着 3,400% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 3,400¢。
• Dems sweep (2,350%)：以 2,350% 的概率位列第三，市场对 Dems sweep 持谨慎怀疑态度，除非势头转变，否则视其为外围黑马。

🥉 第三梯队：长尾选项（合计约 0%）

在前三名之外，还有大量宏观变量与冷门结果被持续追踪。尽管单个概率偏低，但它们是投机交易者的重要对冲：

• 替代选项：包括 Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate (405%)。
• 投机成交：尽管统计概率偏低，像 Dems win Gov, Reps win Senate 这类长尾合约仍吸引着可观的关注。

This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Texas that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".

For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.