
Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner
核心摘要
根据「Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,Harj Dhaliwal 以压倒性的 4,250% 获胜概率主导市场;Harman Preet Singh 以 4,200% 位居第二,Jessie Sunner 以 3,550% 排名第三。该市场的下注量已达 —,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- Harj Dhaliwal (4,250%):Harj Dhaliwal 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 4,250¢,显示出市场的高度确信。
🥈 第二梯队:主要挑战者
- Harman Preet Singh (4,200%):作为最可行的替代选项,Harman Preet Singh 保持着 4,200% 的成真概率,其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 4,200¢。
- Jessie Sunner (3,550%):以 3,550% 的概率位列第三,市场对 Jessie Sunner 持谨慎怀疑态度,除非势头转变,否则视其为外围黑马。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harj Dhaliwal | 4250.0% | — | 4250¢ | -4150¢ |
| 2 | Harman Preet Singh | 4200.0% | — | 4200¢ | -4100¢ |
| 3 | Jessie Sunner | 3550.0% | — | 3550¢ | -3450¢ |
裁决规则
General elections to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia are scheduled to take place on October 24, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.
If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections BC (https://elections.bc.ca/).
常见问题
当前市场对「Surrey-Newton British Columbia Legislative Assembly Election Winner」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,Harj Dhaliwal 以 4,250% 的获胜概率领跑,其次是 Harman Preet Singh(4,200%),以及 Jessie Sunner(3,550%)。该市场总成交量已达 —,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
