Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?

根据「Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，South Dakota 以压倒性的 5,000% 获胜概率主导市场；New Mexico 以 5,000% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 —，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• South Dakota (5,000%)：South Dakota 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 5,000¢，显示出市场的高度确信。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• New Mexico (5,000%)：作为最可行的替代选项，New Mexico 保持着 5,000% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 5,000¢。

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "South Dakota" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in South Dakota has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the New Mexico Senate election.

This market will resolve to "New Mexico" if the regularly-scheduled US Senate race in New Mexico has a smaller unrounded margin of victory than that of the South Dakota Senate election.

If both states have the same margin of victory, this market will resolve 50-50.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

In the event that a relevant margin of victory cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state's margin of victory will be considered to be 0% for purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.