
Solana all time high by ___?
核心摘要
根据「Solana all time high by ___?」的最新预测市场数据,交易者已形成强烈共识。
目前,December 31, 2026 以压倒性的 3.2% 获胜概率主导市场。该市场的下注量已达 $842.8K,反映出市场的高度关注。
竞争梯队拆解
为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置,可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队:
🥇 第一梯队:绝对领跑者
- December 31, 2026 (3.2%):December 31, 2026 目前拥有最高概率,深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 3¢,显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $23.1K 的成交量。
完整订单簿与定价面板
下表列出了该预测池中所有结果的合约价格、概率与市场深度的完整拆解:
| 排名 | 预测结果 | 获胜概率 | 成交量 | 买入 Yes(成本) | 买入 No(成本) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2026 | 3.2% | $23.1K | 3¢ | 97¢ |
裁决规则
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT between 16 December '25 11:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AI 估值分析:发现市场错误定价与 EV 差
人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场,而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布,我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。
将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比,可揭示出重大背离——即期望值(EV)差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果,而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。
顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会
根据最新一轮数据模型测算,以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离:
- 最佳价值标的(最高 EV):我们的模型将 December 31, 2026 识别为盘面上最具价值的机会。市场仅给予其 3.2% 的交易概率,而我们 AI 的公允价值评估为 10%——形成可观的 +6.8% EV 差。
| Market | Trade Value | Fair Value | EV Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026Best EV | 3.2% | 10.0% | +6.8% |
交易动态
以下是该事件的交易动态。
Oct 21, 2026
- 03:02 AMDAdadcool$22.28
Bought 22.73 No for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.98
Oct 16, 2026
- 04:27 PMSUsuntori$0.91
Sold 45.36 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.02
Oct 14, 2026
- 03:22 PMPRpropropro$19.60
Bought 20 No for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.98
Oct 13, 2026
- 10:46 PM——$0.54
Sold 27.04 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.02
- 04:26 PM——$1.08
Bought 27.048293 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.04
Oct 11, 2026
- 06:25 PM0X0x7E5DaAA24637017a5f027ED9186D7419024f40Cc-1775503916063$1.00
Sold 50 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.02
- 04:13 AM——$0.51
Sold 25.64 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.02
- 04:06 AM——$1.03
Bought 25.641026 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.04
Oct 7, 2026
- 04:35 PMRPrplc-ftbl$1.00
Bought 25 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.04
Oct 5, 2026
- 07:33 AMXTxtxpleasecallme$0.30
Bought 10 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.03
Oct 1, 2026
- 11:39 AM-F-FROMTHEFUTURE-$0.08
Sold 2.61 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.03
Sep 28, 2026
- 06:26 PMSUsuntori$1.81
Bought 45.365854 Yes for Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? at 0.04
正在押注该事件的鲸鱼钱包
常见问题
当前市场对「Solana all time high by ___?」的共识是什么?
截至最新更新,December 31, 2026 以 3.2% 的获胜概率领跑。该市场总成交量已达 $842.8K,显示出充足的流动性与高交易参与度。
AI 公允价值与实时市场交易价值有何不同?
实时市场交易价值反映的是公众情绪、订单簿动能与投机资金。我们的 AI 公允价值则由量化模型独立计算,剔除情绪炒作、专注底层数据。两者出现显著背离时即形成 EV 差,提示市场对某个结果可能存在错误定价。
当前哪个结果的期望值(EV)最高?
最新一轮测算显示,December 31, 2026 是最显著的错误定价。市场对其隐含概率仅给到 3.2%,而我们的 AI 测算其公允价值为 10%——形成 +6.8% 的期望值差,是该市场中最具价值的标的。
