Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

根据「Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?」的最新预测市场数据，交易者已形成强烈共识。

目前，December 31 以压倒性的 31% 获胜概率主导市场；October 31 以 17.5% 位居第二。该市场的下注量已达 $80.4K，反映出市场的高度关注。

为了更好地评估各潜在结果的位置，可依据隐含概率与合约定价将市场划分为三个明显的交易梯队：

🥇 第一梯队：绝对领跑者

• December 31 (31%)：December 31 目前拥有最高概率，深受订单簿青睐。看好该结果的交易者面对的「Buy Yes」合约价为 31¢，显示出市场的高度确信。仅该合约就已产生 $10.8K 的成交量。

🥈 第二梯队：主要挑战者

• October 31 (17.5%)：作为最可行的替代选项，October 31 保持着 17.5% 的成真概率，其「Buy Yes」份额目前成交价为 17¢。

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen.

“No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

人群共识与投机成交塑造了更宏观的预测市场，而我们的量化算法提供了数据驱动的反向视角。通过分析基本面信号、底层趋势与历史分布，我们的 AI 估值模型为每个结果独立测算出一个「公允价值」概率。

将该公允价值与当前交易价值对比，可揭示出重大背离——即期望值（EV）差。正 EV 差代表统计上被低估的结果，而负 EV 差则提示市场可能存在反应过度。

顶级 AI Alpha 与错误定价套利机会

根据最新一轮数据模型测算，以下几个关键合约存在显著偏离：

• 最被高估的结果：October 31 当前交易价为 17.5%，但我们的 AI 测算其公允价值仅为 9.9%，形成 -7.6% 的较大负 EV 差，表明人群可能过度炒作该结果、把溢价推得过高。